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Highlights
Jefferies analyst Ramoun Lazar maintains a BUY rating on BlueScope Steel with a price target of AUD 29.00, indicating a 28.6% upside.
BlueScope expects 2H FY2025 EBIT to improve significantly, with forecasts ranging between AUD 360 million to AUD 430 million.
The company is executing an AUD 200 million cost and productivity initiative and targeting AUD 500 million in annual incremental earnings from growth programs.
BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX:BSL) has received a resounding vote of confidence from Jefferies, with analyst Ramoun Lazar assigning a BUY rating and a bold AUD 29.00 price target—representing a potential 28.6% gain from the current share price of AUD 22.55.
While the broader analyst consensus remains mixed—ranging from "neutral" to "underperform" among unnamed contributors—Jefferies’ bullish stance stands out.
Strategic Resilience
BlueScope reported a 1H FY2025 net profit after tax (NPAT) of AUD 179.1 million, a sharp drop of AUD 260.2 million compared to the prior corresponding period. Despite the decline, the company generated AUD 308.8 million in underlying EBIT.
CEO Mark Vassella emphasised that the company's 8.1% return on invested capital, though below internal targets, remains significant given the macro headwinds. He stressed that BlueScope is in significant structure than a decade ago and well-prepared to capitalise on a recovery in global steel markets.
Positioned for Growth: Productivity, Cost Management, and U.S. Expansion
Looking ahead, BlueScope has launched an AUD 200 million productivity and cost efficiency program, aiming to enhance profitability through operational efficiencies and better raw material usage. These measures are expected to deliver substantial benefits in FY2026.
Beyond cost controls, BlueScope is focused on long-term growth. It has set a medium-term target of AUD 500 million in annual incremental earnings driven by:
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Debottlenecking of the North Star facility in the U.S.
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Expansion of the Coated Products business in North America
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Growth in value-added product sales within Australia
Outlook for 2H FY2025
For the second half of FY2025, BlueScope forecasts underlying EBIT of AUD 360–430 million, a clear improvement over the first half. The uptick is expected to be driven by:
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Recovery in U.S. steel spreads
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Increased domestic sales volumes in Australia
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Early gains from the Group-wide cost and productivity campaign


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