Highlights

• Rubicon Water expects FY26 revenue of AUD 60 million to AUD 62 million.

• Delayed customer procurement and contract award processes affected FY26 revenue timing.

• More than AUD 28.4 million of new contracts were secured during H2 FY26, exceeding the prior corresponding period.

• Major project opportunities now exceed AUD 37 million, compared with more than AUD 30 million at the half-year stage.

• The company expects to provide a detailed FY26 performance update with its full-year results in late August.

Rubicon Water Limited (ASX:RWL) has provided a business update outlining its preliminary FY26 revenue expectations, with the company forecasting revenue between AUD 60 million and AUD 62 million on an unaudited basis. While this is below FY25 revenue of AUD 69.0 million, Rubicon said the change primarily reflects delays in customer procurement, evaluation and contract award processes rather than a reduction in underlying demand. The company also highlighted growth in second-half contract signings and an expanding pipeline of major project opportunities.

Rubicon Water shares were trading flat at AUD 0.065 during the morning session on 3 July 2026. The stock remains down 59.38% over the past year. The latest announcement relates to the company's FY26 business update and expected revenue performance.

Rubicon Water is an Australian water technology company specialising in irrigation automation, water measurement and control solutions for agricultural water networks. Its technology is designed to help irrigation operators improve water delivery efficiency, optimise resource management and modernise water infrastructure across domestic and international markets. The company continues to pursue large infrastructure projects alongside its established base business.

FY26 Revenue Expected Below Prior Year

Rubicon said it now expects FY26 revenue to be between AUD 60 million and AUD 62 million, compared with FY25 revenue of AUD 69.0 million. The forecast remains preliminary and subject to completion of the company's year-end audit.

According to the company, the lower revenue expectation is primarily due to the delayed timing of several major customer procurement, evaluation and contract award processes.

Rubicon noted that priority project tender opportunities valued at more than AUD 30 million, which were identified in its H1 FY26 results announcement, remain active. However, because these projects have not yet progressed to contract award, they are no longer expected to contribute materially to FY26 revenue as previously anticipated.

The company stated that award decisions for these opportunities could still occur at short notice.

Procurement Delays Influence Revenue Timing

Rather than indicating a reduction in customer opportunities, Rubicon said the revised revenue outlook reflects the timing of procurement decisions.

The company explained that several major projects remain in customer evaluation or contract award stages, delaying revenue recognition into future reporting periods.

While these projects have yet to be awarded, Rubicon indicated that they continue progressing through customer procurement processes and remain part of its active opportunity pipeline.

As a result, the company expects these opportunities to provide potential support for future revenue once contract awards are completed.

Second-Half Contract Signings Improved

Despite delays affecting major project awards, Rubicon reported improved contract activity during the second half of FY26.

The company secured more than AUD 28.4 million in new contracts during H2 FY26.

This compares with AUD 24.2 million secured during the corresponding period of the previous financial year.

According to Rubicon, the increase in second-half contract signings demonstrates that demand across its underlying base business has remained favourable despite the delayed timing of several larger project awards.

The company pointed to this improvement as evidence that ongoing customer activity has continued outside the major projects affected by procurement timing.

Major Opportunity Pipeline Continues to Expand

Rubicon also reported further growth in its major project pipeline.

The total value of major project opportunities currently in tender, under customer evaluation or progressing through the final stages of contract award has increased to approximately AUD 37 million.

At the time of the company's half-year results, the comparable pipeline exceeded AUD 30 million.

Management said this expanding opportunity pipeline, together with its established base business and other projects progressing toward procurement, provides a substantial opportunity to support revenue growth in FY27 and beyond.

The company indicated that these opportunities remain an important component of its future growth strategy.

Management Comments on Business Performance

Chief Executive Officer Bruce Rodgerson acknowledged that FY26 revenue is now expected to be below FY25 because of delays affecting several major project awards.

However, he stated that the company's underlying base business has continued to perform well during the period.

Mr Rodgerson also noted that the major project opportunities identified at the half-year results remain active, with contract award decisions still expected in the near term.

He added that higher second-half contract signings together with the expansion of the company's major project pipeline support management's view that customer demand for Rubicon's technology continues to remain favourable.

Revenue Timing Rather Than Opportunity Availability

Throughout the update, Rubicon emphasised that the revised FY26 revenue outlook reflects delays in procurement timing rather than the removal of identified project opportunities.

The company stated that the major tenders remain under evaluation or in final contract award stages and continue to represent active opportunities.

With award decisions potentially occurring at relatively short notice, Rubicon indicated that these projects remain an important focus as it moves into FY27.

The company also highlighted that its broader opportunity pipeline has expanded since the release of its half-year results.

Focus Remains on Established Business and Future Projects

Alongside the larger infrastructure opportunities, Rubicon continues to operate its established water technology business across domestic and international markets.

Management indicated that growth in second-half contract signings demonstrates continued customer activity across this core business.

Combined with the expanding pipeline of larger projects, the company believes its current portfolio of opportunities provides a foundation for future revenue once procurement processes are completed.

Rubicon also confirmed that it will continue updating shareholders should any material developments occur regarding these projects.

Full-Year Results Expected in August

The company advised that a comprehensive review of FY26 financial performance will be provided when it releases its full-year results, which are scheduled for late August.

That announcement is expected to include a complete analysis of the company's FY26 operating performance following completion of the external audit process.

Until then, the current revenue guidance remains preliminary and unaudited.

What This Means for Investors?

Rubicon Water's latest business update reflects a change in the expected timing of revenue rather than the withdrawal of major customer opportunities. While FY26 revenue is now forecast to be between AUD 60 million and AUD 62 million because several large project awards have been delayed, the company also reported higher second-half contract signings and an expanded major project opportunity pipeline of approximately AUD 37 million. Investors are likely to monitor the timing of contract award decisions, the release of the audited FY26 results in late August and progress across the company's project pipeline as key developments going forward.