Key Highlights

  • Brent Crude eased to about USD 79 a barrel as Asian trading resumed, after US President Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran and traders began pricing a possible peace deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The next scheduled event is the FY26 full-year result on 27 August 2026, with any final Dividend payable on 14 October.
  • Motorists had their own fuel news: excise on petrol and diesel rose 16c to 54c a litre from 3 August, roughly AUD 8 on a 50-litre tank.
  • At the February result it was 81 per cent covered for the second half of FY26; by April that was about 90 per cent.

An early gain against a softer market Less defiance than arithmetic. Brent crude eased to about USD 79 a barrel as Asian trading resumed, after US President Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran and traders began pricing a possible peace deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The energy sector fell 1.62 per cent. What hurts oil producers tends to help the airlines that burn their product.

Company Overview

The April response was defensive: domestic capacity cut about five percentage points in the June quarter, European flying lifted to Paris and Rome, FY26 net Capital Expenditure trimmed to at or below AUD 4.1 billion, and a planned AUD 150 million buyback deferred.

Latest Update

There was no Qantas announcement to explain the rise. The next scheduled event is the FY26 full-year result on 27 August 2026, with any final dividend payable on 14 October. Motorists had their own fuel news: excise on petrol and diesel rose 16c to 54c a litre from 3 August, roughly AUD 8 on a 50-litre tank. That is a consumer story.

Operations and Strategic Direction

Transmission from spot oil to Earnings runs through the hedge book. Qantas hedges Brent exposure with outright Options and collars on a declining wedge profile, heavier in the near term, and says it prefers options because they allow high participation when fuel prices fall. At the February result it was 81 per cent covered for the second half of FY26; by April that was about 90 per cent.

Financial and Market Snapshot

So a lower crude price is not wasted the way a swap-heavy book would waste it. But crude hedges do not cover refining. In its 14 April 2026 update, Qantas said jet fuel had more than doubled since February guidance and the jet refining Margin , which it does not hedge, had surged from about USD 20 to roughly USD 120 a barrel. Second-half fuel was reguided to AUD 3.1–3.3 billion, some AUD 600–800 million above the AUD 2.5 billion previously indicated. Why it matters to the company

Broader Context

Further evidence remains necessary. Execution will remain important.

What May Be Watched Next

The 27 August result is the test: FY26 Underlying Profit against the April reset, closing net Debt within the target range, whether the deferred buyback is reinstated, FY27 fuel guidance, and above all the hedge cover and structure disclosed for the first half of FY27. Unit Revenue and Loyalty also matter.

Key Risks

The Middle East cuts both ways. Lower crude helps costs, but Qantas told the market in April that reduced Gulf-carrier competition had lifted European Demand , and doubled second-half international unit-revenue guidance to 4–6 per cent growth partly on that basis. A peace deal restoring Gulf capacity could compress those fares just as it compresses fuel. Airspace closures and diversions add cost. Domestically, the consumer is the constraint.