Highlights

• Metal Powder Works is targeting an increase in installed DirectPowder capacity from 120 tonnes to 800 tonnes by 2028, requiring approximately US$1.7 million of planned investment.

• Customer trials currently represent potential annual demand of around 1,500 tonnes, exceeding the company’s targeted 2028 production capacity.

• The company reported revenue of approximately A$1.68 million for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with a net loss of A$3.71 million.

• Metal Powder Works held A$15.31 million in cash at 31 December 2025 and continues progressing commercial relationships across industrial and advanced manufacturing markets.

• Metal Powder Works shares traded at A$1.80, declining 5.26% (-A$0.10) during the session as investors assessed commercial conversion potential.

Metal Powder Works Ltd (ASX:MPW) is working to scale its DirectPowder metal manufacturing technology as it attempts to convert customer evaluations into recurring commercial demand.

The company’s expansion plan requires relatively limited capital compared with traditional powder production methods, but the key challenge remains proving that technical interest can translate into contracted sales volumes.

Capacity Expansion Targets Larger Production Scale

Metal Powder Works outlined plans to increase installed DirectPowder production capacity from 120 tonnes currently to approximately 800 tonnes by 2028.

The company estimates the expansion would require around US$1.7 million of investment through modular additions.

The planned expansion includes:

• Approximately US$750,000 of investment during 2026.

• Around US$500,000 during 2027.

• Approximately US$450,000 during 2028.

The modular approach allows production capacity to be added progressively rather than requiring a large upfront manufacturing facility.

However, the company has described these timelines as illustrative rather than formal guidance.

DirectPowder Technology Targets Powder Manufacturing Efficiency

Metal Powder Works’ core technology is the DirectPowder process.

Unlike conventional powder production methods that involve melting metal and atomising it using gas or water, DirectPowder machines solid metal bar stock into powder at room temperature.

The company believes this approach provides several potential advantages:

• Preservation of original material chemistry.

• Reduced introduction of porosity.

• Higher material yield.

• Faster qualification timelines.

Metal Powder Works states that it can produce more than 30 specification-grade alloys, including aluminium, copper, copper-nickel, titanium and zirconium-based materials.

The company also claims saleable yields above 95%, compared with lower yields associated with some traditional production methods.

These performance claims remain important commercial assumptions that must ultimately be demonstrated through customer adoption.

Customer Trials Become the Key Commercial Test

The company’s main challenge is moving from testing to recurring sales.

Metal Powder Works stated that customers currently evaluating its powder products represent potential annual demand of around 1,500 tonnes.

This exceeds the company’s planned 800-tonne capacity target by 2028.

The commercial pipeline includes applications across:

• Press-and-sinter manufacturing.

• Additive manufacturing.

• Defence-related supply chains.

• Industrial component production.

A key recent development was the agreement with Jet Metals Inc for copper-based powders.

The partnership covers C10100 and C14500 copper powders for add-mix applications, where copper powder is combined with other materials to improve component performance.

Testing is expected to determine whether the relationship progresses into commercial demand.

Focus Shifts Towards High-Volume Copper Powder Market

While additive manufacturing remains a major part of Metal Powder Works’ technology story, the company is increasingly targeting the larger press-and-sinter market.

The press-and-sinter industry uses metal powders to produce components such as gears, bearings and industrial parts.

Metal Powder Works estimates significant demand exists in copper powder applications, where improving production efficiency could provide commercial opportunities.

The company believes its technology may offer advantages through improved yield and faster customer qualification.

However, established suppliers already serve these markets, meaning adoption will depend on cost competitiveness and customer performance validation.

Defence Exposure Remains Indirect

Metal Powder Works has highlighted defence applications as a potential opportunity.

The company’s technology reaches defence-related programs through relationships with third-party partners, including cold-spray manufacturer CenterLine.

Applications have been associated with US and UK defence programs.

However, the company is not currently a direct supplier to major defence platforms based on available disclosures.

Qualification processes in defence and aerospace markets are typically lengthy, meaning commercial contribution may take significant time.

Financial Position Supports Development Phase

Metal Powder Works remains an early-stage manufacturing company.

For the six months ended 31 December 2025:

• Revenue was approximately A$1.68 million.

• Net loss was approximately A$3.71 million.

• Cash stood at approximately A$15.31 million.

The company recorded operating cash outflows and continued investment into production capability.

The current balance sheet provides funding support for capacity expansion and commercial development, although continued losses mean revenue growth remains important.

Why the Development Matters

The most important aspect of Metal Powder Works’ expansion plan is the relatively low capital requirement compared with traditional manufacturing scale-ups.

If the company can increase capacity through modular additions, it may be able to align production growth with customer demand.

However, manufacturing capacity alone does not create value.

The key milestone is converting customer evaluations into purchase orders and demonstrating that DirectPowder can achieve repeat commercial adoption.

Growth Catalysts to Watch

Potential catalysts for Metal Powder Works include:

• Completion of Jet Metals copper powder testing.

• Conversion of customer trials into long-term supply agreements.

• Expansion beyond the current 120-tonne production capacity.

• Growth in press-and-sinter customer adoption.

• FY26 results showing progress in revenue growth and margins.

Risks and Challenges

Commercial conversion remains the largest risk.

A strong trial pipeline does not guarantee long-term contracts, and customers may take extended periods to qualify new powder suppliers.

Valuation is another consideration.

The company’s market capitalisation remains significantly higher than current revenue levels, meaning future growth expectations are already reflected in the share price.

Operational scaling also carries risks.

Increasing production capacity requires maintaining quality standards, managing manufacturing processes and ensuring customer requirements are consistently met.

Competition from established powder producers remains a challenge, particularly in markets where customers have long-standing supplier relationships.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The next phase will focus on evidence of commercial traction.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Revenue growth compared with the current A$1.68 million half-year base.

• New customer agreements and contracted volumes.

• Progress towards 800-tonne production capacity.

• Gross margin improvement.

• Cash balance and operating expenditure trends.

Conclusion

Metal Powder Works has outlined a relatively capital-efficient pathway to increase production capacity while targeting a larger role in the global powder metallurgy supply chain.

The company’s DirectPowder technology has attracted customer interest across industrial applications, but the next stage depends on converting trials into recurring commercial demand.

With shares trading at A$1.80, down 5.26% (-A$0.10), investors are focused on whether Metal Powder Works can move from technology validation into sustainable manufacturing revenue.