Key Takeaways

  • AMP guided to first-half 2026 underlying net profit of $170 million to $180 million, against $131 million a year earlier, with full results due 6 August.
  • About $56 million post-tax is expected from AMP's minority stakes in China Life Pension Company and China Life AMP Asset Management, roughly a third of the guided profit.
  • Platform flows are improving and a $150 million buyback is done, but AMP Bank earnings fell in FY25 and the China earnings are equity accounted, not controlled.

Why AMP is suddenly in focus

On 16 July 2026 AMP Limited (ASX: AMP) told the market it expects underlying net profit after tax of $170 million to $180 million for the six months to 30 June 2026. AMP reports on a calendar year, so that is its first half.

The shares closed about 9.8 per cent higher at $1.90, among the strongest performers in the S&P/ASX 200 - a large move for a company whose recent history has been one of shrinkage.

AMP began life in 1849 as the Australian Mutual Provident Society, making it 177 years old. The striking part of the update is where the growth came from: a minority stake in a Chinese pension manager.

What the trading update actually said

The range compares with underlying NPAT of $131 million in the first half of 2025, implying growth of roughly 30 to 37 per cent. Strictly it is a first-time trading update, not an upgrade to prior guidance, because AMP does not issue formal half-year forecasts.

AMP attributed the largest single contribution to its China partnerships, which it expects to deliver about $56 million post-tax, a 24 per cent increase on the second half of 2025.

Smaller items helped too. About $13 million of carried interest was recognised after DigitalBridge sold 51 per cent of the assets in a legacy fund. The North Guarantee added roughly $5 million and group investment income about $5 million, while a revaluation of sponsor investments cost around $12 million.

What the China stakes actually are

AMP holds 19.99 per cent of China Life Pension Company and 14.97 per cent of China Life AMP Asset Management, both joint ventures with China Life. Neither is controlled or consolidated; both are equity accounted.

At 30 June 2025 the CLPC stake was carried at $525 million and CLAMP at $103 million. CLPC's assets under management rose about 17 per cent during 2025 to roughly RMB 2.4 trillion, or around A$515 billion.

The driver is China's occupational pension build-out. AMP points to momentum in the state-run Pillar 1 and employer-funded Pillar 2 enterprise annuity markets, with individual Pillar 3 accounts the next leg. More than 310 million Chinese are aged 60 or over.

Testing the growth-stock framing

The trajectory is steep. The China contribution was $47 million in FY24 and $72 million in FY25. It was $27 million in the first half of 2025, against about $56 million guided this year.

Scale matters, though. On the guidance midpoint China would account for roughly a third of group underlying profit. That is material, but AMP's total underlying NPAT was $285 million for all of FY25 and a large percentage gain from a modest base is not a growth company.

Nor is the stream controlled. AMP cannot direct CLPC's strategy, pricing or dividend policy and has guided that its partnerships portfolio should deliver a combined return of about 10 per cent a year over the medium term - a respectable equity return, not a compounding engine.

The Australian businesses after the sell-down

After selling AMP Capital's real estate and infrastructure arms and exiting advice, four businesses remain: Platforms (North), Superannuation and Investments, AMP Bank and New Zealand Wealth Management. Group assets under management were $161.7 billion at end-FY25.

Platforms is the growth asset. FY25 underlying NPAT rose 9.3 per cent to $106 million, North AUM climbed 13.5 per cent to $88.7 billion and net cashflows excluding pension payments jumped 85.2 per cent to $5.1 billion. The revenue margin slipped from 45 to 42 basis points.

Superannuation and Investments earned $62 million, but still shed $542 million in net outflows. New Zealand Wealth Management contributed $39 million on $12.3 billion of AUM. First-quarter 2026 platform net inflows of $1.1 billion were.

AMP Bank and the digital build

AMP Bank is the soft spot. FY25 underlying NPAT fell 9.8 per cent to $55 million. Excluding the new digital bank it rose 6.6 per cent to $65 million, with AMP Bank GO absorbing a $10 million loss.

The residential mortgage book grew 3.8 per cent to $23.9 billion and net interest margin edged up to 1.27 per cent from 1.26. Total deposits fell 4.4 per cent to $19.6 billion. AMP has not disclosed an all-in build cost for GO.

GO is scaling quickly. Deposits reached $942 million in the first quarter of 2026 from $310 million at December, across close to 25,000 customers, roughly three-quarters new to the bank. AMP expects GO deposits above $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.

Capital returns, costs and the legacy bill

AMP announced a $150 million on-market buyback on 27 March 2026 and completed it on 15 June, repurchasing about 99 million shares at an average of roughly $1.52. A further capital update comes with the August result.

Departing chief executive Alexis George said AMP had returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders and restarted dividends during her tenure. The FY25 dividend totalled 4.0 cents a share, 20 per cent franked. Former finance chief Blair Vernon took over in March.

Controllable costs fell 6.9 per cent to $603 million and the cost-to-income ratio improved 6.1 percentage points to 61.5 per cent. The legacy bill is not settled: FY25 statutory NPAT of $133 million trailed underlying profit largely because of $152 million of litigation costs.

The principal risks

The China earnings carry the clearest risk. They are equity accounted, exposed to Chinese regulatory settings on pension fees and product design and generated by businesses AMP does not manage. A policy shift in Beijing would land straight in AMP's profit.

Domestically, platform competition is intense. HUB24 reported record FY26 net inflows of $18.9 billion and funds under administration of $164.3 billion. North's flows are improving, but from a larger, more mature book and platform margins keep grinding lower.

Bank risks include net interest margin compression in a fiercely priced mortgage market, deposit funding costs and execution on AMP Bank GO, which is still loss-making. Several July items, carried interest above all, are one-off by nature.