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Highlights

  • Macquarie Research maintains 'Outperform' rating with 100% upside to AUD 2.45

  • PNV's FY25 revenue surged 28.9% to AUD 118.6 million, with record sales in June

  • EBITDA and cash flow turnaround increases confidence in FY26 profitability

PolyNovo Limited (ASX:PNV) has received an endorsement from Macquarie Research, which reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating on the stock, assigning a target price of AUD 2.45 — an ambitious 100% upside from its current trading level of AUD 1.23 per share (as at July 30, 2025).

Led by analyst Rachael Harwood, Macquarie’s rating highlights confidence in PolyNovo, likely to be underpinned by consistent operational performance, international sales, and innovative product development in the wound care and medical technology sector.

Analyst Backing and Review Update

The “Outperform” rating by Macquarie was initially issued on 6 December 2022 and has been revalidated on 30 July 2025. The AUD 2.45 target price aligns with the analyst’s bullish stance on PolyNovo’s ability to sustain revenue and margin growth, particularly in the U.S. and Rest of World markets.

Global Sales Growth Fuelling the Bullish Outlook

PolyNovo recently reported FY25 revenue of AUD 118.6 million, a 28.9% increase year-on-year. The U.S. market led the charge with sales of AUD 88.4 million, while the Rest of World contributed AUD 30.3 million, also up nearly 30%. Notable high-growth regions included:

  • India: +80.8%

  • France: +378.8%

  • UK: +51.9%

  • Canada and Turkey: solid double-digit growth

Further, monthly sales records were broken in June 2025, with commercial sales reaching AUD 12.8 million and total revenue of AUD 13.7 million.

Turnaround in Profitability and Operational Cash Flow

Macquarie’s bullish rating is reinforced by PolyNovo’s improving profitability metrics. The company expects FY25 EBITDA between AUD 11.2 million and AUD 12.4 million, up from AUD 3.6 million in the prior year.

More notably, 2H25 cash flow from operations stood at AUD 15.7 million, reversing the negative trend from 1H25 (−AUD 12.5 million). By June 30, 2025, PolyNovo had AUD 33.5 million in cash.

Product Innovation and Market Penetration Strengthen Thesis

Macquarie’s valuation also reflects the company’s strategic expansion into new product lines and geographies. Sales of NovoSorb MTX more than doubled in 2H25, while NovoSorb BTM made first-time sales in multiple new international markets. U.S. regulatory clearance for the 6 mm NovoSorb BTM variant in June 2025 adds another catalyst to revenue projections.