Treasury Wine Estates Shares Slip Amid Market Volatility, but Analysts See Upside

Wed 19 Mar 25, 12:53 AM | Team Kalkine

Shares of Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) traded marginally lower on Wednesday, down 0.5% to AU$10.03. Despite the decline, analysts suggest the Australian wine producer could emerge as a beneficiary if potential U.S. tariffs disrupt global wine trade.

Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted that Treasury Wine Estates could capitalise on a potential 200% tariff on European wine imports proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump last week. Imported wines currently make up approximately 30% of total U.S. wine consumption by value, meaning any market disruption could open opportunities for domestic producers.

Treasury Americas, the company’s U.S. division, contributes around 38% of total group revenue. Given that most of its sales revenue comes from domestically produced wines, the unit could benefit from reduced foreign supply and greater pricing power.

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its "overweight" rating on Treasury Wine Estates, maintaining a price target of AU$12.90—implying a significant upside from current levels. According to LSEG data, 13 out of 15 analysts rate the stock as a "buy" or higher, with a median price target of AU$13.64.

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