Treasury Wine Estates Shares Slip Amid Market Volatility, but Analysts See Upside

Wed 19 Mar 25, 12:53 AM | Team Kalkine

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Highlights

Stock Movement: Treasury Wine Estates shares fell 0.5% to AU$10.03 but remain a potential winner amid tariff uncertainty.

U.S. Tariff Impact: A proposed 200% tariff on European wine could reduce competition and benefit Treasury Americas.

Analyst Ratings: Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating with a price target of AU$12.90, while the median analyst target stands at AU$13.64.

Shares of Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) traded marginally lower on Wednesday, down 0.5% to AU$10.03. Despite the decline, analysts suggest the Australian wine producer could emerge as a beneficiary if potential U.S. tariffs disrupt global wine trade.

Potential Boost from U.S. Tariff Threats

Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted that Treasury Wine Estates could capitalise on a potential 200% tariff on European wine imports proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump last week. Imported wines currently make up approximately 30% of total U.S. wine consumption by value, meaning any market disruption could open opportunities for domestic producers.

Treasury Americas, the company’s U.S. division, contributes around 38% of total group revenue. Given that most of its sales revenue comes from domestically produced wines, the unit could benefit from reduced foreign supply and greater pricing power.

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