Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd.

Highlights:

  • Jefferies analyst Simon Fitzgerald reaffirmed a Buy rating on HMC Capital with a price target of AUD 5.01, indicating 30.13% upside.

  • HMC Capital reported FY25 pre-tax operating earnings of AUD 224.6 million, up 74% year-on-year, and AUM growth to AUD 18.7 billion.

  • The Group is targeting FY26 pre-tax earnings of at least 40.0 cents per share, supported by growth in real estate, private credit, and energy transition platforms.

HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC), an alternative asset manager listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has received a reaffirmed Buy rating from Jefferies analyst Simon Fitzgerald. The rating was issued on 16 May 2025, accompanied by a target price of AUD 5.01, representing a potential upside of approximately 30.13% from the company’s most recent closing price of AUD 3.73 on 21 August 2025.

The Jefferies recommendation comes as HMC Capital reported a record performance for the financial year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25), underpinned by growth across multiple business divisions. The Group’s assets under management (AUM) increased 47% year-on-year to AUD 18.7 billion, supported by capital deployment into real estate, private equity, private credit, digital infrastructure, and energy transition platforms.

Financial and Operational Highlights

For FY25, HMC Capital reported pre-tax operating earnings of AUD 224.6 million, up 74% on FY24. Pre-tax operating earnings per share (OEPS) rose 51% year-on-year to 56.0 cents. The Group declared a partially franked dividend of 12.0 cents per share for FY25, consistent with its stated strategy.

Operationally, the Group achieved significant milestones across its business units:

  • Real Estate: Full deployment of the AUD 1.0 billion Last Mile Logistics Fund I and establishment of new funds, including HARP and HUG, with combined inflows of AUD 580 million. Fundraising continues for the HMC Urban Retail Fund.

  • Private Equity: HMCCP Fund I delivered a 43.6% net return in FY25 and has achieved a 30% annual return since inception.

  • Private Credit: AUM expanded 21% in FY25, with a deal pipeline of around AUD 3 billion, up from AUD 1 billion in the prior year.

  • Digital Infrastructure: Successful establishment and IPO of DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX:DGT). The SYD1 project is progressing with an expected delivery of 9MW liquid cooled IT capacity in Q4 FY26.

  • Energy Transition: Acquisition of Neoen’s Victorian portfolio on 1 August 2025, positioning HMC as a major player in renewable energy and storage in Australia.

FY26 Outlook

HMC Capital is targeting pre-tax earnings of at least 40.0 cents per share in FY26, representing a 29% compound annual growth rate since FY20. Growth is expected to be driven by recurring funds management earnings across established divisions, including projected fund management EBITDA growth of 15% in real estate and 20% in private credit. The Group reaffirmed its dividend guidance of 12.0 cents per share for FY26.