Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS): Why Is Trion First Oil Still Targeted for 2028?

Aditi Sarkar

29 October 2026 10:07 PM AEDT

Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS): Why Is Trion First Oil Still Targeted for 2028?

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Highlights

Woodside targets first oil from Trion in 2028, not October 2026.
The March 2026 quarterly update showed Trion 56% complete and on budget.
The 2026 drilling program comprises 24 subsea wells for the planned development.
The floating production unit is designed for around 100,000 barrels per day.

Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) develops and produces oil and gas, with growth investments in Australian and international energy projects. Its Trion development offshore Mexico is progressing through construction and subsea drilling. Despite the uploaded headline referring to first-oil achievement, Woodside’s project disclosures retain 2028 as the target for initial oil production. The current investment story for WDS is therefore execution against construction and drilling schedules, not revenue from completed Trion oil output.

Project design and ownership

Trion lies in the Perdido Fold Belt in water approximately 2,500 metres deep, around 180 kilometres offshore Mexico and 30 kilometres south of the United States-Mexico maritime boundary. Woodside is operator with a 60% participating interest, while PEMEX holds 40%. The planned floating production unit, named Tlaloc, has nameplate capacity of about 100,000 barrels of oil a day. A floating storage and offloading vessel, Chalchi, is designed to hold 950,000 barrels. These are engineered capacities rather than achieved daily production figures. For WDS, development and operating performance must be assessed separately.

Construction and drilling during 2026

Woodside reported Trion was 56% complete at 31 March 2026 and remained on budget. The company said the drilling campaign started that month, covering 24 subsea wells. Hull fabrication for the floating production unit had reached key milestones, with two major topside modules lifted into place. Construction of the floating storage and offloading vessel was also progressing. Subsequent company commentary in 2026 continued to describe Trion as advancing to schedule and budget, with start-up targeted in 2028. It did not establish that the floating facilities had commenced producing commercial oil. The WDS schedule depends on integrating construction, drilling, offshore installation and commissioning.

How to interpret development risk

Trion involves deepwater wells, subsea equipment and multiple floating facilities that must ultimately operate together. Installation and commissioning requirements are material project dependencies, not completed achievements merely because construction is advanced. Woodside’s approved project estimate is approximately US$7.2 billion, including around US$4.8 billion attributable to Woodside under the stated ownership and carry arrangements. Future quarterly reports will be relevant for updated completion percentages, drilling progress, offshore equipment installation and cost-versus-budget disclosures. Oil-price movements may affect economics, but no realised Trion sales price can be reported before first production. WDS also has other projects, making group production and Trion development progress distinct reporting measures.

Additional Operating Context

Woodside's March 2026 drilling announcement identifies the Deepwater Thalassa as the drillship for the 24-well campaign, with offshore logistics supported from ports in Mexico's Tamaulipas state. The company describes the Tlaloc production unit and Chalchi storage vessel as complementary elements of the planned offshore system. These details give WDS several milestones to report before first oil, including subsea connection and facility readiness. They also reinforce why a single construction percentage cannot show that all parts of a complex development have reached commercial operational status.

Key Insights

For Trion, the central factual point remains the 2028 first-oil target. Project completion percentages, installed equipment and drilling activity show development progress, not finished commercial output. WDS investors can use official construction and cost updates to measure whether the timeline remains intact without assuming that an anticipated milestone has already occurred.

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