On 9 October 2026, Carnarvon Energy Limited (ASX:CVN) released its Quarterly Activities Report for the period ended 30 September 2026. The report covers the planned 2027 drilling campaign in the Bedout Sub-basin, the status of the Dorado project and the company’s cash position.

2027 Bedout drilling campaign

The Transocean Equinox semi-submersible rig has been contracted for the 2027 Bedout campaign, with environmental plan approval on track and drilling to commence from April 2027, timed to largely avoid the main cyclone season. The campaign includes one firm and one contingent well in Carnarvon’s exploration permits (WA-435 to 438-P, where Carnarvon holds 10% to 20% and Santos is operator).

The most likely firm well is Ara, in WA-435-P (Carnarvon 10%), which has an estimated geological chance of success of 37% and prospective resources of 191 million barrels of oil equivalent (gross, unrisked Pmean). The report notes that fluid type cannot be reliably determined before drilling, so Ara may contain oil, gas or both. If both wells are drilled, the expected cost to Carnarvon is about A$20 million, to be funded from cash.

Dorado project

Dorado WA-64-L (Carnarvon 10%, Santos 80% and operator) is described as FEED-ready. The report says pre-FEED work completed in 2024 indicated a plateau rate of about 60,000 barrels of oil per day, and cites industry data published in September 2026 showing Australian Crude Oil production of around 32,000 barrels per day in the June 2026 quarter. A preliminary development plan considers a staged approach, beginning with liquids production followed by a potential gas export phase.

Cash and investments

Carnarvon reported A$97 million in cash, no debt, and a US$90 million development carry for the Dorado project. It holds a 19.9% stake in Strike Energy Ltd (ASX:STX), which announced during the quarter a proposed path forward for its West Erregulla development. The report states exploration in the Bedout Sub-basin has had a success rate of about 67% since modern 3D seismic was applied, with four discoveries from six wells.

Sector backdrop

Exploration and appraisal wells offshore Western Australia are drilled by contracted rigs and planned months in advance, with seasonal weather windows. Prospective resources are estimates of undiscovered quantities with a risk of discovery and development.

Joint venture budgets and approvals determine which wells proceed, so contingent wells may not be drilled.

Risks shareholders should weigh

Ara has a 37% geological chance of success, meaning a 63% chance of not finding a commercial accumulation on the company’s own estimate. Prospective resources are unrisked and relate to undiscovered accumulations.

The campaign depends on environment plan approval, joint venture budgeting and approvals, and rig availability. The contingent well is yet to be firmed up.

Dorado is FEED-ready, but a final Investment decision has not been made, and the release does not give a timetable. Carnarvon has no production Revenue disclosed in the summary and relies on cash reserves of A$97 million and its Strike Energy holding, whose value can change.

What’s next

Environment plan approval is on track for April 2027 drilling, and the contingent well is expected to be firmed up in the coming quarter as part of joint venture planning. Shareholders may wish to watch for the final well selection, joint venture approvals and any Dorado decisions.