Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG): FY26 Earnings, Energy Markets Result and Kraken Investment

Aditi Sarkar

23 October 2026 12:29 AM AEDT

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG): FY26 Earnings, Energy Markets Result and Kraken Investment

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Highlights

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) reported FY26 underlying profit of A$1,159 million and statutory profit of A$1,574 million.
Adjusted free cash flow rose to A$2,074 million from A$1,207 million, with FY26 dividends totalling 60 cents per share, fully franked.
Energy Markets underlying EBITDA increased to A$1,701 million, with 243,000 customer accounts added.
FY27 guidance includes Energy Markets EBITDA of A$1,550 million to A$1,850 million and total capital expenditure of A$450 million to A$650 million.

Origin Energy Limited is an Australian energy company that sells electricity and gas to customers, operates generation and batteries, and holds an interest in the Australia Pacific LNG export project. Its FY26 results, released in August 2026, showed lower underlying profit, higher cash generation and a new investment in Kraken Technologies.

Company Business

Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) reports through three main areas. Energy Markets supplies electricity and gas to about 4.94 million customer accounts and manages the group's generation, battery and virtual power plant assets. Integrated Gas covers Origin's interest in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), which produces coal seam gas in Queensland for domestic supply and LNG export. A third area holds Origin's interests in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies, the energy retailing and software businesses based on the Kraken platform.

Origin's generation portfolio includes the Eraring Power Station in New South Wales, alongside grid-scale batteries. At August 2026, 1.3 GW and 4.1 GWh of batteries were operational from a 1.8 GW development program.

Recent Development

In mid-August 2026, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) declared a final dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked, taking FY26 dividends to 60 cents per share.

In July 2026, Kraken Technologies completed a US$1 billion equity raise at a look-through valuation of US$8.65 billion, with Origin investing A$210 million. Origin reported a 22.7% economic interest across Octopus and Kraken, and Kraken had 95 million contracted accounts at 30 June 2026 against a target of 100 million in 2027.

Also in July 2026, Origin disclosed unauthorised access to some customer information. Origin has notified affected customers and is working with authorities, and the matter is under criminal investigation. The annual general meeting was scheduled for 14 October 2026.

Financial Performance and Sector Context

For FY26, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) reported underlying EBITDA of A$3,220 million compared with A$3,411 million in FY25, and underlying profit of A$1,159 million compared with A$1,490 million. Statutory profit was A$1,574 million, up from A$1,481 million. Adjusted free cash flow rose to A$2,074 million, and adjusted net debt was A$4,852 million, or 1.6 times adjusted underlying EBITDA.

Energy Markets underlying EBITDA rose to A$1,701 million from A$1,404 million. Electricity gross profit increased to A$1,608 million and natural gas gross profit to A$612 million, while cost to serve fell to A$642 million from A$698 million.

Integrated Gas underlying EBITDA declined to A$1,620 million from A$2,202 million, reflecting a lower realised oil price of US$72 per barrel and a smaller LNG trading gain. APLNG produced 668 PJ on a 100% basis and Origin received A$911 million in fully franked distributions. Origin noted that higher oil prices are expected to flow into APLNG's realised LNG prices in FY27 with a lag, while lower average wholesale costs are expected to be passed through in regulated retail tariffs.

Risks to Consider

Origin's earnings are exposed to commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates and customer demand. FY27 guidance assumes market conditions and the regulatory environment do not change materially, and the company expects tariff components to moderate as lower forward prices flow through. APLNG earnings depend on oil-linked LNG pricing and on production within the FY27 range of 625 PJ to 670 PJ.

Delivery of batteries and the Eraring expansion, regulatory settings and the pace of the energy transition also carry execution risk. The customer data incident remains under review.

What to Watch Next

Scheduled project milestones include the Mortlake battery, estimated for the third quarter of calendar 2026, the second stage of the Eraring battery expansion in the first quarter of calendar 2027, and the Summerfield battery in the first half of calendar 2027. Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) will report results for the six months to 31 December 2026 as its next full financial update.

Other items include progress towards Kraken's 100 million account target, the data incident review, and FY27 guidance for Kraken revenue growth above 20% and Octopus UK EBITDA per customer of £25 to £50.

Key Insights

Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) closed FY26 with lower underlying profit but higher statutory profit, a sharp increase in adjusted free cash flow and reduced capital expenditure of A$969 million. Energy Markets improved while Integrated Gas earnings declined on lower oil-linked prices. Monitoring points include battery commissioning, tariff settings, oil and gas prices and the data incident review.

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