Highlights

• Energy Markets underlying EBITDA climbed to $1,701 million from $1,404 million as cost to serve fell to $642 million.

• Integrated Gas EBITDA dropped to $1,620 million from $2,202 million on lower oil-linked earnings at Australia Pacific LNG.

• Adjusted free cash flow rose $867 million to $2,074 million, and adjusted net debt stood at 1.6 times EBITDA.

• Origin declared a 30 cent final dividend, taking the fully franked full-year payout to 60 cents per share.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) entered FY27 with two businesses moving in opposite directions. Its retail arm, Energy Markets, lifted underlying EBITDA to $1,701 million for the year to 30 June 2026, while Integrated Gas earnings dropped on weaker oil-linked prices. Shares were trading at A$12.18 on 23 October 2026, up 0.74%.

Retail Earnings Take the Lead

Energy Markets generated $1,701 million of underlying EBITDA, up from $1,404 million. Electricity gross profit was $1,608 million and natural gas gross profit was $612 million. Cost to serve fell to $642 million from $698 million. Origin added 243,000 accounts, and churn was 15.0%.

Integrated Gas Pulls the Headline Down

Integrated Gas delivered $1,620 million of underlying EBITDA against $2,202 million a year earlier. Origin pointed to lower oil-linked earnings at Australia Pacific LNG and smaller LNG trading gains. APLNG produced 668 petajoules on a 100% basis, and Origin received $911 million in dividends from the venture, up from $797 million.

The mix produced a lower headline result. Underlying profit was $1,159 million, down from $1,490 million, and underlying EBITDA was $3,220 million, down from $3,411 million. Origin attributed the fall to expected declines in commodity-linked Integrated Gas earnings and higher depreciation and amortisation. Statutory profit moved the other way, rising to $1,574 million from $1,481 million.

Cash generation nonetheless strengthened. Adjusted free cash flow reached $2,074 million, up $867 million from $1,207 million. Adjusted net debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA was 1.6 times.

Shareholders also receive a dividend. Origin declared a final dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked, which brought total fully franked dividends for FY26 to 60 cents per share.

Octopus, Eraring and the Battery Build

Origin's share of Octopus Energy, including Kraken, recorded a loss of $8 million, narrowing from $88 million. The loss narrowed by $80 million. Octopus served 19 million customer accounts, and Kraken's contracted accounts reached 95 million. Origin holds a 22.7% economic interest.

At the Eraring Power Station, ash re-use rose to 77% from 61%, and Origin said it has funded more than 600 training courses at the site since 2022 under its Future Directions program. Battery capacity operating as at August 2026 stood at 1.3 GW and 4.1 GWh, part of a 1.8 GW development program.

Guidance Marks the Road Ahead

Origin set FY27 guidance on the assumption that market and regulatory conditions do not change materially. It expects Energy Markets EBITDA of $1,550 million to $1,850 million and APLNG production of 625 to 670 petajoules on a 100% basis, compared with 668 petajoules produced in FY26. APLNG capital and operating expenditure is guided at $3.0 billion to $3.3 billion.

For Octopus, Origin guides to UK EBITDA per customer of 25 to 50 pounds. For Kraken Technologies, it expects revenue growth above 20% and a subscription gross profit margin above 70%. Total Origin capital expenditure is guided at $450 million to $650 million, with lower growth capex as the battery program winds down.