Highlights

• Energy Markets EBITDA rose approximately 21% to $1,701 million in FY26.

• Integrated Gas (APLNG) EBITDA fell approximately 19% to $1,620 million due to lower LNG prices.

• Underlying EBITDA of approximately $3,220 million for the full year.

• Underlying Profit fell approximately 22% to around $1,159 million; statutory profit rose approximately 6% to $1,574 million.

• Full-year Dividend maintained at 60 cents per share, fully franked — a Yield of approximately 5.7%.

• Octopus Energy reached approximately 14.8 million UK retail accounts and 18.8 million globally.

• Octopus and Kraken segment narrowed to a small loss of approximately $8 million.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) reported its FY2026 results for the year to 30 June 2026, delivering a result defined by the interplay between a resurgent domestic energy Retailing Business and a softer contribution from its Australia Pacific LNG venture. Energy Markets EBITDA rose approximately 21% to $1,701 million, providing a substantial offset to Integrated Gas, where lower realised LNG prices and production dynamics drove EBITDA down approximately 19% to $1,620 million. The board maintained the full-year dividend at 60 cents per share, fully franked, delivering a yield of approximately 5.7% — a decision that underscored confidence in the diversified Earnings base despite the weaker gas result.

Energy Markets Delivers the Year's Standout Performance

Origin's domestic energy retailing arm was the standout segment of FY26, with EBITDA rising approximately 21% to $1,701 million as retailing conditions improved. The Energy Markets result reflected the benefit of Origin's scale across electricity and gas retail, its customer management capabilities and the repricing of contracts in a period when wholesale cost movements were broadly favourable. This improvement provided the earnings buffer that allowed the group to absorb the APLNG headwind and maintain the dividend at its prior-year level.

Octopus Energy Narrows Its Loss as Scale Builds

Origin's stake in UK-based Octopus Energy continued to attract investor attention in FY26. Octopus reported approximately 14.8 million UK retail accounts and approximately 18.8 million globally — a gain of 2.2 million accounts during the year — as the Kraken customer-management software platform kept scaling across third-party Utility clients internationally. The Octopus and Kraken segment narrowed its loss to approximately $8 million from a much larger Deficit in the prior year, a meaningful step toward breakeven that reframes the medium-term earnings contribution of Origin's growth arm.

APLNG and the Gas Earnings Backdrop

The Integrated Gas segment — principally Origin's share of the Australia Pacific LNG venture — delivered EBITDA of approximately $1,620 million, down approximately 19% on the prior year, as lower realised LNG prices and production dynamics weighed on the result. Origin guided to FY27 APLNG production of 625 to 670 petajoules on a 100% basis. The width of production and pricing guidance ranges reflects the genuine swing factors inherent in LNG earnings, and investors should expect continued variability in this segment as global energy markets evolve.

What Investors May Watch

The path toward profitability for Octopus Energy and continued scaling of the Kraken platform — particularly external licensing to third-party utilities — is the most significant longer-dated catalyst for Origin's valuation. Kraken's capital-light, recurring-revenue model could attract a technology-style earnings multiple from investors if external client wins accelerate. FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance of $1,550 million to $1,850 million represents a wide range that reflects the uncertainty of wholesale power prices and retail margins. APLNG production volumes and global LNG pricing will continue to be the primary variable in the gas segment.

Risks

Commodity prices are the dominant risk for Origin. LNG earnings track oil-linked contract prices and spot markets — both inherently volatile — while domestic retail margins are exposed to wholesale electricity costs and regulatory settings that can shift abruptly. The energy transition underpins the Octopus growth thesis but simultaneously brings execution demands around firming generation and storage investment. A stumble in the UK expansion program, a material deterioration in APLNG output, or an adverse regulatory decision in domestic energy markets would each test the earnings Diversification that Origin's current strategy depends upon.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or Investment advice.