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Highlights

  • Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas assigns a “Buy” rating to Ampol with a price target of AUD 33.00, representing a 13.17% upside from current levels.

  • Ampol delivered 1H 2025 RCOP EBITDA of AUD 649 million and declared a fully franked interim dividend of 40 cents per share.

  • The company’s planned acquisition of EG Australia is expected to increase its retail and convenience network, subject to ACCC approval.

Ampol Ltd (ASX:ALD), Australia’s leading fuel and convenience retailer, has received a significant endorsement from Jefferies, with analyst Michael Simotas assigning the stock a “Buy” rating and setting a target price of AUD 33.00. This valuation suggests a potential 13.17% gain from Ampol’s latest share price.

Half-Year Performance

For the first half of 2025, Ampol reported Group Replacement Cost Operating Profit (RCOP) EBITDA of AUD 649 million and RCOP EBIT of AUD 404 million. Despite a statutory loss after tax of AUD 25 million, the company recorded a RCOP Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) excluding significant items of AUD 180 million.

The Board declared an interim dividend of 40 cents per share, fully franked, representing a payout ratio of 53% of RCOP NPAT (excluding significant items). The record date is set for 1 September 2025, with payment scheduled for 25 September 2025.

Ampol’s financial position remains stable, with net borrowings of AUD 2.82 billion as of 30 June 2025, compared to AUD 2.77 billion at year-end 2024. The company’s liquidity is supported by committed facilities of AUD 5.1 billion, while leverage stood at 2.8x Adjusted Net Debt/RCOP EBITDA.

Strategic Expansion and Outlook

One of the key growth drivers for Ampol is its planned acquisition of EG Australia, which, once approved by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), is expected to deliver compelling financial synergies and expand the company’s footprint in the retail and convenience segment.

Operationally, Ampol highlighted an improvement in product cracks since June, with LRM for July rising to US$9.95 per barrel. The Alkylation Turnaround and Inspection (T&I) at Lytton began in July and is expected to conclude by late September. Other business segments, including Fuel & Infrastructure (Ex-Lytton), Convenience Retail, and operations in New Zealand, are projected to continue stable performance into the second half.

Net capital expenditure for 2025 is forecast at approximately AUD 600 million, with major allocations to the Lytton ULSF Project, highway site developments, and the ongoing turnaround projects.

Jefferies’ Confidence in Ampol

Jefferies’ “Buy” recommendation reflects optimism in Ampol’s earnings resilience, balance sheet, and growth prospects.