Key Highlights

  • Ampol is Australia's largest transport fuels supplier, built around the Lytton refinery in Brisbane, a national network of terminals, pipelines, trading and shipping, and convenience retail spanning a branded service-station network and the discount U-GO format, plus Z Energy, New Zealand's largest fuel retailer, acquired in 2022.
  • Viva Energy operates the Geelong refinery in Victoria, supplying roughly 10% of Australia's fuel, and reports three segments: Energy & Infrastructure (refining, terminals, supply); Commercial & Industrial (bulk fuel to mining, transport, aviation and agriculture); and Convenience & Mobility, the retail network built from the former Coles Express business, now trading as Reddy Express, plus the OTR Brand acquired in 2024.
  • GreenX, formerly Prairie Mining, developed the Jan Karski coking coal project in south-eastern Poland, alleged Polish state authorities blocked it, and pursued claims under the Australia-Poland Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) and the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT).
  • The three businesses combine different Revenue models, Capital needs and execution priorities within the energy sector.

Ampol (ASX:ALD), Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) and GreenX Metals (ASX:GRX) approach FY2027 from different operating positions. Their latest company disclosures show how revenue quality, cash conversion and delivery against announced programs matter more than a shared sector label.

Each company is assessed on its own reporting calendar and Business model. The discussion below retains company-reported financial measures and announced plans while separating those facts from assumptions about future outcomes.

Company Business

Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD)

Ampol is Australia's largest transport fuels supplier, built around the Lytton refinery in Brisbane, a national network of terminals, pipelines, trading and shipping, and convenience retail spanning a branded service-station network and the discount U-GO format, plus Z Energy, New Zealand's largest fuel retailer, acquired in 2022.

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)

Viva Energy operates the Geelong refinery in Victoria, supplying roughly 10% of Australia's fuel, and reports three segments: Energy & Infrastructure (refining, terminals, supply); Commercial & Industrial (bulk fuel to mining, transport, aviation and agriculture); and Convenience & Mobility, the retail network built from the former Coles Express business, now trading as Reddy Express, plus the OTR brand acquired in 2024. Viva is also a calendar-year reporter, so HY2026 covers the six months to 30 June 2026.

GreenX Metals Limited (ASX:GRX)

GreenX, formerly Prairie Mining, developed the Jan Karski coking coal project in south-eastern Poland, alleged Polish state authorities blocked it, and pursued claims under the Australia-Poland Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) and the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT). Its current project page lists the Tannenberg copper-silver project in Germany and the Eleonore North gold project in Greenland, plus a retained interest in the Arctic Rift Copper project in north-eastern Greenland; the Polish coal Assets are no longer among its active exploration projects.

Financial Performance

Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD)

Ampol's HY2026 result, released in late August 2026, was a record: RCOP EBITDA reached approximately A$1.64 billion, up 152%; RCOP EBIT was A$1,391.7 million against A$403.8 million; and RCOP NPAT A$857.2 million versus A$180.2 million. Statutory NPAT was A$1,363.4 million, against a A$25.3 million statutory loss in HY2025 — the gap reflecting large inventory gains.

The driver was Lytton, where the refiner Margin averaged USA$28.26 per barrel against USA$7.44 in HY2025, as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb tightened regional product supply. Refinery production rose 8.7% to 2,945 million litres, and Lytton's RCOP EBIT swung to A$533.4 million from A$1.1 million. Ampol received no Fuel Security Services Payment in either half, with margins well above the trigger.

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)

Viva Energy operates the Geelong refinery in Victoria, supplying roughly 10% of Australia's fuel, and reports three segments: Energy & Infrastructure (refining, terminals, supply); Commercial & Industrial (bulk fuel to mining, transport, aviation and agriculture); and Convenience & Mobility, the retail network built from the former Coles Express business, now trading as Reddy Express, plus the OTR brand acquired in 2024. Viva is also a calendar-year reporter, so HY2026 covers the six months to 30 June 2026.

Viva reported HY2026 on 25 August 2026, and like Ampol it was a record: Group EBITDA on a replacement cost basis reached A$774.4 million, up 154% from A$304.9 million, and replacement cost NPAT was A$371.1 million against A$62.6 million, up 493%. Underlying free Cash Flow was A$449 million.

GreenX Metals Limited (ASX:GRX)

On 7 October 2024, an arbitral tribunal unanimously found Poland had breached both treaties, awarding £252 million (approximately A$495 million) under the BIT and £183 million (approximately A$360 million) under the ECT — alternative recoveries, not cumulative. Interest accrues at SONIA plus 1%, compounded annually from 31 December 2019 — roughly 6% per annum — with about £17 million accrued between the award and the end of December 2025.

The critical 2026 development came on 9 January 2026, when the Singapore International Commercial Court dismissed Poland's application to set aside the ECT award, rejecting the argument that EU law should override the treaty obligation. Poland subsequently paid GreenX approximately A$1.6 million toward legal costs of that unsuccessful challenge, reported in late March 2026 — so far the only cash GreenX has received from Poland.

Sector Context

The companies serve different parts of the energy economy, so their revenue and cost structures are not directly interchangeable. Contract duration, recurring income, customer concentration, Capital Expenditure and Acquisition accounting can materially change how headline growth appears in each set of accounts.

A useful comparison therefore starts with the source of revenue and the cash required to support it. Reported guidance remains conditional on management execution, customer activity and the timing of announced projects or integrations.

Risks to Consider

Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD)

The dominant risk is that the margin environment reverses: management was explicit that exceptional first-half conditions are "not a new normal," and while July 2026 margins held at USA$27.11 per barrel, Ampol's FY2025 average was USA$10.34 and FY2024 USA$7.08.

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)

Refining margin normalisation is the same exposure Ampol carries, and Viva's mix makes it acute — Energy & Infrastructure produced almost half of group EBITDA in a half where it had earned A$18.4 million a year earlier.

GreenX Metals Limited (ASX:GRX)

Enforcement against a sovereign state can take years, with no certainty as to timing or amount recovered, and Poland has contested the award at every stage; even a full win still leaves the funder waterfall and other costs already outlined between the award and shareholders.

What to Watch Next

Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD)

Net borrowings rose to A$3.52 billion from A$2,903 million at FY2025 year-end, reflecting the EG settlement, with Leverage at 1.8 times adjusted net Debt to EBITDA — below the 2.0-2.5 times target range. Net capital expenditure was A$174.4 million. The board declared a fully franked Interim Dividend of 185 cents per share, distributing about A$441 million, its largest, against a policy payout of 50-70% of RCOP NPAT. FY2025 by comparison produced RCOP NPAT of A$429 million, statutory NPAT of A$82.4 million and total dividends of 100 cents.

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)

Convenience & Mobility — the segment behind Viva's post-acquisition difficulties — earned A$138.7 million of EBITDA against A$74.4 million. Retail fuel volumes rose about 2%, shop sales excluding tobacco grew 1.3%, and shop margin was 37.7%, or 42.5% excluding tobacco and wastage, up from 41.2%. Tobacco sales fell 16.8%, continuing a structural decline management suggested may have bottomed. The chief executive described the retail business as reaching "a turning point" after two years of integration work.

The Balance Sheet improved materially: net debt fell to A$1.72 billion at 30 June 2026 from A$2.075 billion at 31 December 2025, helped by an approximately A$300 million inventory reduction, while gearing improved to 1.5 times total net debt to EBITDA from around 3 times at FY2025 year-end. Net capital expenditure was A$123 million, with FY2026 guidance maintained at A$350-400 million, weighted to the second half.

GreenX Metals Limited (ASX:GRX)

The principal award has not been collected: Poland is pursuing an appeal to the Singapore Court of Appeal, with a hearing expected in the second half of 2026, while its application to set aside the BIT award remains before the courts of England and Wales. GreenX has noted the threshold for succeeding on an English set-aside application is high, with the great majority rejected — a probability statement, not an outcome.

On exploration, GreenX announced an Exploration Target at Tannenberg on 28 May 2026 of 144 to 279 million tonnes at 0.9% to 1.4% copper and 15 to 21 grams per tonne silver, equating to roughly 1.3 to 3.9 million tonnes of contained copper — conceptual, since there has been insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource and it is uncertain whether further work will result in one. Mineralogical study indicated suitability for conventional flotation, comparable to Polish Kupferschiefer operations, across the roughly 1,900 square kilometre Tannenberg holding in Hesse, which includes the historical Richelsdorf mines.

How to Read the Current Position

The clearest assessment will come from subsequent company reporting. Revenue should be read alongside margins and cash flow, while acquisition-led growth should be distinguished from organic activity. Guidance and longer-term targets are company objectives rather than assured outcomes.