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Highlights
ASX 200 Energy Index rises 5.04% amid broader market rebound.
US President Trump grants a 90-day delay on new reciprocal tariffs.
Macquarie downgrades Viva Energy and Ampol, citing weaker oil demand outlook.
New 12-month share price targets show steep cuts.
ASX 200 energy stocks are among the top performers in Thursday’s market rally, spurred by news of a temporary delay in the implementation of new US tariffs.
US President Donald Trump has given trading partners a 90-day grace period before new reciprocal tariffs, first announced on 02 April 2025, are fully enforced. During this period, a flat 10% baseline tariff will apply, with higher, country-specific tariffs set to take effect afterward.
This policy shift triggered a significant rebound in US markets overnight, which is now spilling over to the local market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO) is currently up 4.57%, while the Energy Index (ASX:XEJ) leads sector gains, surging by 5.04%.
However, a leading broker Macquarie has issued a warning, downgrading its outlook on ASX-listed oil refiners Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX:VEA) and Ampol Ltd (ASX:ALD).
Macquarie Flags Oil Demand Risk
Macquarie's latest note points to increased risks for oil demand in 2025, exacerbated by the unexpectedly broad scope of the US tariffs.
"China’s oil demand has already been below expectations this year," Macquarie said, adding that the tariffs are a "material new risk" that could undercut global oil consumption.
The broker had previously been optimistic about tighter refining supply and demand conditions in 2026–27, but the new risks have prompted a sharp reassessment. It now forecasts weaker margins for refiners like Viva Energy and Ampol, stating:
"A weaker oil demand outlook would place downward pressure on refiner margins."
Downgrades and Price Target Cuts
As a result, Macquarie has downgraded both Viva Energy and Ampol from Outperform to Neutral, slashing their 12-month price targets.
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Viva Energy (ASX:VEA): Price target reduced by 39%, from AU$2.80 to AU$1.70. Viva shares are currently trading at AU$1.53, up 4.23% today.
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Ampol (ASX:ALD): Target cut by 15%, from AU$28 to AU$23.70. Ampol shares are trading at AU$22.04, up 6.22%.






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