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Highlights

  • APA Group shares have surged 17% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index’s 2.5% gain.

  • Macquarie retains an “Outperform” rating on APA, citing strong earnings prospects and a robust dividend outlook.

  • However, the broker sees limited short-term upside with a price target of $8.14 — slightly below the current share price of $8.23.

Shares of APA Group (ASX:APA) have been among the better performers on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2025, rising 17% year-to-date and significantly outpacing the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has delivered a comparatively modest 2.5% gain.

Despite this impressive run, investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) has offered a cautiously optimistic view on the energy infrastructure giant. In a recent note, the broker maintained its "Outperform" rating, signalling confidence in APA’s long-term growth potential — but also warned that the stock is currently fully valued.

Macquarie has retained its $8.14 price target, slightly below APA’s current trading price of $8.23. The broker believes that while further short-term gains may be limited, APA’s balance sheet and future growth pipeline support its continued bullish stance on the stock.

“Pipeline continues to brim with opportunities, with some hope the Pilbara and ECG will have projects coming to FID,” Macquarie’s analysts noted. “GPG is a new opportunity, both with partners and direct, as APA develops an infrastructure model for the asset. Outperform.”

The broker also emphasised APA’s capacity to fund around $600 million annually, with potential for further capital deployment via asset recycling strategies. Macquarie values the company’s unrisked project pipeline at over $6 billion.

Dividend 

One of APA Group’s most compelling features, according to Macquarie, is its consistent and rising dividend profile. In FY 2024, APA paid out 56 cents per share. The broker expects this to rise steadily over the next few years:

  • 57 cents per share in FY 2025 (yielding 6.9% at current price),

  • 58 cents in FY 2026 (yielding 7.0%),

  • 59 cents in FY 2027 (yielding 7.15%).