Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) Secures BUY Ratings Amid Up to 65% Price Upside Forecast

Sonal Goyal

17 July 2025 09:03 PM AEST

Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) Secures BUY Ratings Amid Up to 65% Price Upside Forecast

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Highlights

Analysts from Bell Potter, Wilsons, Macquarie, and Canaccord Genuity maintain BUY or equivalent ratings on AEL.AX.

Target prices suggest up to 65.22% potential upside from the current share price of AUD 0.230.

Q4 FY25 marked record production and revenue.

Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX:AEL), a prominent player in Australia's oil and gas exploration sector, has received a wave of positive analyst recommendations, with all major brokers initiating or maintaining BUY-equivalent ratings on the stock. The average target price of AUD 0.29 reflects a 26.09% upside from the current trading price of AUD 0.230.

Bell Potter Securities has maintained a BUY rating with a target price of AUD 0.28, suggesting a 21.74% potential upside. Similarly, Wilsons issued an OVERWEIGHT rating with a target of AUD 0.25, while Macquarie Research’s OUTPERFORM rating came with a bullish AUD 0.38 price target—implying the most optimistic upside of 65.22%. Canaccord Genuity also maintained a 2-BUY rating and expects the stock to reach AUD 0.34, reflecting a potential rise of 47.83%.

Record Quarterly Performance Lends Fundamental Support

These upgrades align with Amplitude Energy’s recent operational success. In its Q4 FY25 update, the company reported record quarterly production of 7.01 PJe, up 15% from the previous quarter, bringing full-year production to 26.64 PJe, at the upper end of its FY25 guidance and 17% higher YoY.

Average realised gas prices remained at AUD 10.11/GJ for Q4 and AUD 9.91/GJ for the full fiscal year—up 12% from the prior period. This price strength translated into a record revenue of AUD 267.7 million in FY25, up 22% YoY, including AUD 70.7 million in Q4 revenue, a 12% increase from Q3 FY25.

Operational Advancements and Debt Reduction

Further bolstering the investment case, Amplitude Energy’s Otway Gas Plant (OGPP) delivered a record production rate of 67.1 TJ/d and operated at nameplate capacity (68 TJ/d) throughout June. The company is exploring ways to increase instantaneous capacity beyond current levels.

Progress continues on the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP), with a three-well drilling campaign slated to begin in Q2 FY26, starting with the Elanora well. The project has now entered its Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) phase.

Despite capital expenditures associated with ECSP and decommissioning costs at Minerva, the company succeeded in reducing net debt to AUD 242.8 million, down 2% from Q3 FY25.

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