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Highlights:

  • AGL reported a statutory loss of AUD 98 million in FY25, impacted by AUD 596 million in significant items.

  • Underlying NPAT fell 21% to AUD 640 million, with EBITDA down 9% year-on-year.

  • FY26 guidance points to stable EBITDA but lower NPAT due to rising costs and depreciation.

AGL Energy Limited (ASX:AGL) shares fell 12.9% to AUD 8.90 on Wednesday, 13 August 2025, after the company reported a statutory loss and weaker earnings for the year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25). Despite delivering results broadly in line with guidance, the energy giant flagged lower underlying profit and EBITDA compared to the prior year, alongside a cautious outlook for FY26.

FY25 Performance and Statutory Loss

AGL reported a statutory loss after tax of AUD 98 million for FY25, driven by significant items totalling AUD 596 million post-tax. These included a AUD 398 million increase in onerous contracts, AUD 87 million in Retail Transformation costs, and a negative AUD 142 million movement in the fair value of financial instruments.

Underlying EBITDA was AUD 2,010 million, down 9% year-on-year, while Underlying Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) fell 21% to AUD 640 million. The decline was attributed to lower generation volumes, higher costs for green certificates and coal, and the impact of earlier bill relief payments.

Dividends and Capital Position

AGL declared a fully franked final dividend of 25 cents per share, bringing the total FY25 dividend to 48 cents per share. This reflects a 50% payout ratio of Underlying NPAT, the lower end of the company’s targeted 50–75% range, as management prioritises funding for major battery projects at Liddell and Tomago and ongoing transformation initiatives.

The company ended the year with AUD 1.3 billion in cash and undrawn debt facilities. Underlying operating cash flow (adjusted for bill relief payments) stood at AUD 1,778 million, representing a 97% conversion rate from EBITDA.

Strategic Developments

FY25 saw AGL expand its development pipeline to 9.6 GW and grow flexible fleet capacity to 8.3 GW. Key milestones included the launch of the AGL Community Power program, the acquisition of Tesla’s South Australia Virtual Power Plant portfolio, and final investment approval for the 500 MW / 2,000 MWh Tomago Battery. The Liddell Battery, also 500 MW, remains on track to commence operations in early 2026.

FY26 Guidance and Outlook

For FY26, AGL expects Underlying EBITDA between AUD 1,920 million and AUD 2,220 million, supported by improved plant availability, the Liddell Battery’s commencement, and higher Customer Markets earnings. However, Underlying NPAT is forecast to fall to between AUD 500 million and AUD 700 million due to higher depreciation, amortisation, and finance costs linked to asset investments and increased borrowings.