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Asked on national television to forecast the Reserve Bank's next decision, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser declined, pointing out that the outcome rests with nine voters rather than with any one official.

Interviews with senior central bankers are often parsed for hints about the next interest rate decision. When Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser appeared on ABC 7.30 on 8 September 2026, he made it plain that viewers looking for a tip would leave disappointed.

"There's nine people voting on it. So you'd be mad to take my advice," he said, when the conversation turned to predicting the Board's decision.

The line was delivered with some humour, but it carried a serious message about how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the cash rate, and about the limits of reading too much into any single voice.

Nine voters, one decision

Mr Hauser's point was simple: the cash rate is decided by the Monetary Policy Board as a group, not by an individual. Even a Deputy Governor cannot speak for how the Board will vote before it meets. A forecast from one official, however senior, would be only one view among several.

That framing has practical consequences for anyone following the RBA. Comments by individual officials can explain how the Bank sees the economy, what risks it is weighing and what it has already done. They are not a substitute for the Board's own statement after each meeting.

Three weeks after the interview, that statement arrived. On 29 September the Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September. The statement recorded: "Today's policy decision was unanimous."

What Hauser was willing to say

While he would not forecast a decision, Mr Hauser was forthcoming about the reasoning behind policy.

On the year's earlier moves, he said: "Inflation is too high, and that's why we raise interest rates three times at the beginning of this year."

On the outlook for inflation, he said: "Inflation is due to be back in target by the end of next year." The RBA's target is 2–3 per cent, so that comment points to inflation returning to that band by the end of 2027.

He also tried to explain why the cost of living feels so heavy for many households. The price level in the economy, he said, has risen by "10, 15, 20 per cent higher than it should have done". That is a statement about the accumulated level of prices, not the current annual inflation rate.

Perhaps his most notable remark was about why the RBA tightens at all. "We're doing it in order to try to protect the jobs gains that happened during COVID," he said. In other words, he presented tighter policy as a means of protecting those gains rather than reversing them.

He touched on artificial intelligence too, saying that to generate the benefits of the technology "you first have to put in place the kit", describing what is under way as a "fairly conventional investment boom".

On housing, he noted that house prices were up about 3 per cent over the year and about 50 per cent since the start of the decade.

Reading the Board's own words instead

If individual officials will not call the next move, the most authoritative guide is what the Board itself has said. Its 29 September statement ended with a clear description of its stance: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed."

Governor Michele Bullock struck a similar note at her media conference that afternoon. "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down," she said.

Both comments are conditional. They set out what the Board is prepared to do, not a commitment to a particular outcome at a particular meeting. Asked about the possibility of recession, Ms Bullock said: "That is not our central base case at this moment."

The statement also listed the pressures the Board is weighing, including that "global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts" and that "Short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated." It added that recent data suggest growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected. Those are the conditions the Board will be reassessing, with fresh forecasts, when it next meets.

Where to hear from Hauser next

Mr Hauser is scheduled to speak again before and after the next decision. According to the RBA's calendar:

  • on 21 October he appears at Citi's Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney;
  • the Board's next decision is due at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November, alongside a new Statement on Monetary Policy, with the Governor's media conference at 3.30 pm; and
  • on 5 November he delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the Australian National University.

Given his comments on 7.30, those expecting him to signal the 3 November outcome in October may want to temper their expectations. On his own account, his remarks are best read as an explanation of the Bank's thinking rather than a forecast.

Other dates worth noting include the minutes of the September meeting on 13 October and the next CPI update on 28 October. The August monthly CPI indicator showed headline inflation of 4.0 per cent, while Ms Bullock has said underlying inflation has been about 3.5 per cent for the past six months.

The bottom line

Mr Hauser's refusal to predict the next rate move was more than a quip. It was a reminder that the cash rate is set by a nine-member vote, and that the most reliable guide to the Board's intentions is its own published statement. That statement, issued after a unanimous decision to lift the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, says the Board will do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target, including raising rates further if needed. Beyond that, as the Deputy Governor put it, you would be mad to take anyone's advice on the outcome.