Highlights

  • RBA liaison suggests most Australian firms have not changed headcount because of AI.
  • Some evidence points to weaker hiring in highly AI-exposed occupations, particularly among younger workers.
  • Task automation and Job replacement are different: AI could also complement existing roles.

The growing use of artificial intelligence is raising questions about the future of work, but early Australian evidence does not show widespread employment disruption. In a 9 November 2026 speech, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter said AI is likely to change the tasks people perform and the skills employers require. She also emphasised that the effects on individual occupations may be more disruptive than aggregate employment figures initially reveal.

What firms are reporting now

The RBA’s Business liaison findings suggest that around three-quarters of surveyed firms had not changed headcount because of AI over the preceding year. Approximately 12 per cent reported slower hiring or not filling roles, about 8 per cent reduced headcount and roughly 6 per cent increased headcount.

These figures indicate that adoption is occurring without a uniform reduction in employment. Many businesses are still experimenting with AI or using it to support existing workers rather than redesigning their workforce. Contacts generally did not expect AI to affect headcount over the following year.

Early signals among younger workers

The RBA also examined job advertisements and employment patterns by occupational exposure to AI. It identified tentative evidence of weaker job posting and employment outcomes in more exposed occupations, alongside stronger growth in less exposed areas, particularly among younger workers.

However, the differences were modest. The speech cautioned that it is too early to determine whether they reflect AI adoption or other labour market influences. This distinction matters because a change in hiring can have several causes, including shifts in business Demand and broader economic conditions.

The RBA noted that aggregate labour Market Indicators may conceal difficulties faced by workers entering particular professions or performing tasks that are more easily automated.

Automation is not the same as displacement

Hunter distinguished between technology replacing specific tasks and replacing an entire job. A role can contain activities that AI performs effectively alongside responsibilities that continue to require human judgement, communication or oversight.

The speech cited Jobs and Skills Australia estimates suggesting around 4 per cent of Australian workers are highly exposed to automation by AI, compared with 31 per cent highly exposed to AI complementing or augmenting their work. These are measures of potential task exposure, not predictions of how many people will lose jobs.

New roles may also emerge as businesses adopt AI, while existing jobs change. The eventual outcome will depend on how firms organise work, how quickly technology advances and how workers adapt.

Why the RBA is monitoring the transition

Employment and wage developments influence household income, spending and monetary policy. A technology that changes demand for skills could affect those variables even if total employment remains relatively stable. The RBA therefore intends to track both broad labour indicators and changes within exposed occupations.

Key Insights

Current evidence points to limited economy-wide employment effects but possible early adjustment in specific roles. The distinction between task exposure, hiring changes and actual job losses remains central to assessing AI’s labour market impact.