Key Highlights

•  Brad Jones named geopolitics, artificial intelligence and the plumbing of the superannuation system as the issues on his mind, in panel remarks on 26 October 2026.

•  On AI he raised cyber risk, high valuations and increasingly debt-financed investment, including vendor and circular financing.

•  He said super has acted as a net buyer of domestic equities in past falls, and that RBA and APRA stress tests suggest the sector is well placed, while liquidity demands are changing.

Brad Jones, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Assistant Governor (Financial System), used a panel at the super and wealth summit in Melbourne on 26 October 2026 to name what concerns him: geopolitics, artificial intelligence and the plumbing of the superannuation system. Super funds hold more than $4.4 trillion, as stated at the summit, so risks to the sector matter to most Australian workers. These are one official's panel remarks, not a Board decision.

Geopolitics and payments

Asked what keeps him awake, Jones described a relapse of the security dilemma, a Cold War idea in which one country's efforts to feel secure make others less secure. He linked this to a return to mercantilist policies in which interdependence is seen as a vulnerability. He pointed to possible fragmentation of payment systems, capital flows along geopolitical lines, and new shocks through operational channels.

AI valuations and debt

On artificial intelligence, Jones raised three issues. First, operational risk: AI is creating an arms race between offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. Second, valuations: he said earnings expectations for the US technology sector had been about 45 per cent a year beyond three years, so a lot of good news is priced in, though he did not call it irrational.

Third, financing. Unlike the equity-funded dot-com period of the late 1990s, he said AI investment is increasingly debt-financed, including vendor and circular financing, and a very small number of stocks account for a share of market value not seen since the nineteenth century. He added that the internet proved valuable despite the early 2000s correction, and said the RBA is "leaning into" the financial risks.

Superannuation and early release

Jones said the RBA has not modelled early release of super causing inflation. It did study early release during COVID, when some funds saw net outflows of about 5 to 6 per cent of assets, though most saw 1 to 2 per cent. He said the unexpected nature of any early release is the main financial stability concern, and that changes announced well ahead give funds time to adjust.

Could super steady a market fall?

He noted super has been a countercyclical force, acting as a net buyer of domestic equities in 2008 and 2020, and said RBA and APRA stress tests suggest the sector is well placed. But he flagged changes: more funds are moving into net cash outflow as members retire, currency hedging liquidity demands will grow, and the system is becoming less of a closed loop. He also said fund administration and custody are concentrated among a few providers, calling April 2025 "maybe a first shot across the bow".

Uncertainties and limits

The published record omits the panel discussion sections, so we cannot report what other panellists said. The 45 per cent figure is Jones's description of earnings expectations, not an RBA forecast, and the RBA has not published analysis supporting it in this transcript.

What to watch next

The RBA's next Monetary Policy Decision Statement is due at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November 2026. Further Financial Stability Review analysis is not yet scheduled in the sources we reviewed.