Key Highlights

  • The Property Council puts the current share at 47%.
  • The Council says the budget forecasts imply a 48% property share by 2028–29.
  • The windfall gains tax raised $15 million in the figures discussed.
  • The Victorian election is scheduled for 28 November 2026.

Property now supplies close to half of everything the Victorian Government collects in tax, according to the Property Council of Australia's election platform. The figure lands just over two weeks before Victorians vote on 28 November, with both major parties promising land tax relief. The Council also says the state's windfall gains tax raised only $15 million in 2024-25, and argues it costs far more in lost Investment than it brings in.

The 47% figure

The Property Council's Victorian election platform, released in October, says property provides 47% of the Victorian Government's annual tax revenue.

On Budget forecasts, the Council says, that share rises to 48% by 2028-29.

The figure covers the range of state levies on property, which in Victoria include land tax, stamp duty (land transfer duty), and surcharges and charges such as the absentee owner Surcharge and the windfall gains tax.

The share matters because property tax Revenue is closely tied to the market. Stamp duty collections in particular tend to rise and fall with sale volumes and prices, which makes a budget heavily reliant on property more exposed to a downturn.

A windfall gains tax that raised $15 million

Victoria's windfall gains tax applies, in broad terms, to the increase in land value when land is rezoned. It took effect in 2023 and has been a frequent target of industry criticism since.

According to the Property Council, it raised $15 million in 2024-25.

The Council argues that removing it would add $1.4 billion in annual investment, about 3,100 homes and 2,700 jobs a year.

Taken at face value, the claimed investment benefit is more than 90 times the revenue raised. The comparison is the core of the industry's case, but the estimates depend on assumptions about how developers respond.

Hypothetical example: reading the ratio

Hypothetical example: if the Council's figures were accurate, every $1 of windfall gains tax revenue collected in 2024-25 would correspond to about $93 of investment forgone each year ($1.4 billion ÷ $15 million).

Put another way, scrapping the tax would cost the budget $15 million a year on 2024-25 figures. That is about $4,800 of revenue per additional home the Council says would be built ($15 million ÷ 3,100 homes).

Those calculations use the Council's numbers only to show scale. They do not include any extra stamp duty or land tax that new investment might generate, nor the possibility that revenue from the tax grows as more rezonings are completed.

Land tax: same target, different speed

The property tax debate has become a central part of the campaign.

Premier Ben Carroll announced on 4 October that Labor would lift the general land tax threshold from $50,000 by $25,000 a year from 2027-28. It would reach $150,000 by 2030-31 and $300,000 by the end of 2033-34.

Labor puts the cost at $230 million over five years. It says the plan would be funded through fleet consolidation ($70 million), delayed level crossing removals ($798 million) and cuts to public service executive roles (more than $100 million).

The Coalition, led by Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, would lift the threshold by $50,000 a year to reach $300,000 by 2031-32. The Opposition says more than 250,000 Victorians would benefit.

Both are proposals, not law. Each would return the threshold to $300,000, the level that applied before the COVID Debt levy changes cut it to $50,000. They differ mainly in speed: the Coalition would reach $300,000 two years sooner.

Neither timetable is cheap in a state where property carries so much of the revenue load. A higher threshold removes smaller landholders from the land tax base, which is the intended relief but also reduces collections.

One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering has said he would roll back the windfall gains tax and land taxes and restore the $300,000 threshold. The Liberals' David Southwick has also said the Coalition would scrap Labor's target of 70% of new homes in established areas.

HIA Victoria's Keith Ryan said: "Lifting the threshold will help restore some confidence and reduce cost pressures."

The market backdrop

A property-heavy revenue base is being tested by a falling market. The Reserve Bank of Australia said in its November Statement on Monetary Policy that national prices were 4.7% below their recent peak in September, with the fall mainly due to monetary policy and federal budget tax changes.

Melbourne is already 7.3% below its level five years ago, according to Cotality. Melbourne auction numbers have also run about 55% below last year's since mid-October.

Fewer sales generally mean less stamp duty. Any downturn in duty collections would add pressure on whichever party forms government to fund its land tax promises.

On supply, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported 3,694 dwelling approvals in Victoria in September, behind Queensland's 4,382 and NSW's 5,322, although approvals vary from month to month.

The Council has asked for other changes too. It says Victoria's global institutional investment Per Capita is about 40% below NSW's, and links a 53% fall to the 2023 doubling of the absentee owner surcharge from 2% to 4%. Its platform calls for a two-year extension of the off-the-plan stamp duty exemption, eligibility for all townhouses, and waivers of vacant residential land tax for developers genuinely trying to sell.

What to watch

The next few weeks will shape how Victoria taxes property for years ahead.

- 13 November: the Senate Economics Legislation Committee reports on the federal Tax Reform No. 3 Bill. - 28 November: Victorians vote, deciding which land tax timetable, if any, is implemented. - 1 December: Cotality's home value index will show whether Melbourne's falls are easing. - December: the federal MYEFO update. - 2027-28: the first year of Labor's proposed land tax threshold increases. - 1 July 2027: the federal negative gearing and CGT changes under the Tax Reform No. 1 Act 2026 take effect.

Whoever wins, the share of revenue drawn from property, and how sensitive it is to the market, will remain a central budget question.