Key Highlights

  • Assistant Governor Brad Jones said the main stability risk from early access to super is an unexpected change at a time when Liquidity is already strained.
  • During the Pandemic some funds had net outflows of 5 or 6 per cent of assets, but most saw roughly 1 to 2 per cent; net inflows of $1 billion to $2 billion a week now provide a buffer.
  • His remarks were made on 26 October 2026 and are not a Board decision or a forecast that any early-release policy will be adopted.

Superannuation is Australia's largest pool of Investment savings, so how it behaves in a crisis matters well beyond members' own balances. The Reserve Bank of Australia's Brad Jones has now said the main stability risk from letting people access super early is an unexpected change at a time when liquidity is already strained.

What Jones said and when

Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System), spoke on a panel at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit in Melbourne on 26 October 2026, moderated by James Thompson. The transcript records only his remarks and the moderator's questions.

These are Jones's views as an RBA official. They are not a Board decision, and they are not a forecast that any early-release policy will be adopted.

Lessons from the pandemic

Jones said the RBA studied early release during COVID. Some funds had net outflows of 5 or 6 per cent of assets, but most saw roughly 1 to 2 per cent. He said JobKeeper and sustained labour market attachment limited outflows, and that without JobKeeper outflows could have been larger.

A policy announced well in advance, he said, gives the sector time to adjust its products. He also said the RBA had not specifically modelled an early-release scenario that feeds into inflation.

A stabiliser, with headwinds

Jones confirmed that super has historically been a countercyclical stabiliser. It was a net buyer of domestic equities in 2008 and 2020. He said the RBA and APRA have recently stress-tested the sector and it appears well placed to withstand significant stress.

Net inflows of $1 billion to $2 billion a week currently provide a buffer. He listed future headwinds: the sector becoming a larger net owner of domestic Assets such as bank bills, more funds moving into net cash outflow as members enter the drawdown phase, growing foreign-exchange hedging liquidity demands, and operational concentration among fund administrators and custodians. Jones said April of last year was a warning that major financial market disruption could coincide with a major operational event.

Markets, geopolitics and artificial intelligence

Jones described geopolitical tension as a relapse of the "security dilemma", with fragmentation of payment systems and Capital flows a possible result. He said artificial intelligence is an accelerant of operational risk, with offensive and defensive capabilities both advancing.

On markets, he said valuations embed considerable good news and are "punchy". He pointed to rising use of debt, including opaque forms such as vendor financing, and to Market Capitalisation concentrated in a very small number of stocks. Jones also said markets could again detach from reality before eventually correcting. He said the technology itself remains transformative.

The RBA's Financial Stability Review, released on 1 October 2026, likewise highlights AI-related financing, geopolitical tensions and operational disruption among its main risks.

What it means for readers

For fund members, the message is not that savings are at risk. Jones said the sector currently looks well placed. It is that changes to access rules, especially sudden ones, can affect how funds manage liquidity. Any individual decision about contributions or withdrawals depends on personal circumstances and is outside the scope of his remarks.

Uncertainties

Jones noted that the 2020 experience was shaped by JobKeeper, so it may not be a guide to a future episode. The scale of any future drawdown would depend on the policy design and economic conditions.

What to watch next

Watch for further RBA and APRA work on super sector resilience and for the next Financial Stability Review, which the RBA publishes twice a year. No date for a super-related policy decision was given in the remarks.