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The next consumer price index update lands on 28 October, six days before the Reserve Bank's November decision, and it arrives with inflation still well above target.

Counting from Monday 5 October, Australians are 23 days away from the next official read on consumer prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia's calendar lists the next CPI update for 28 October 2026, and its timing gives it more weight than usual.

The Monetary Policy Board meets on 2–3 November, with its decision due at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November. The November Statement on Monetary Policy, containing the bank's updated forecasts, is released at the same time, followed by the Governor's media conference at 3.30 pm. The 28 October numbers will therefore be among the freshest inflation data available when the Board sits down.

The backdrop is a central bank that has just lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, its fourth increase in 2026, and that has said it is prepared to do more if needed. Here is what the RBA has said about inflation so far, and what is worth watching.

Where inflation stood going in

The latest headline figure is the August monthly CPI indicator, which showed annual inflation of 4.0 per cent. That is the headline rate. It is not the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation.

For underlying inflation, the RBA looks at the trimmed mean. Governor Michele Bullock said at her 29 September media conference that underlying inflation has been about 3.5 per cent for the past six months. In her 18 September opening statement to the House Economics Committee, she said: "Over the past year, both headline and underlying measures of inflation were around or a little above 3½ per cent."

Both sets of numbers sit above the target range of 2–3 per cent, with the RBA aiming for the 2.5 per cent midpoint. The Governor's summary to parliament was blunt: "Inflation is too high. We are focused on getting it back down and making sure that it does not become embedded."

The distance from target is also a reminder of how far things have moved. Bullock told the committee that inflation "fell significantly from its peak of 7.9 per cent at the end of 2022 to be within the 2–3 per cent target range for a period in 2024 and 2025." Both measures now sit above that range again.

Five things to watch on 28 October

The RBA has not said what it expects the release to show. But its own statements point to the parts of the picture it is watching.

  • Headline versus underlying. The gap between the 4.0 per cent headline figure and underlying inflation of around 3.5 per cent is one of the key features of the current data. Whether the two move together or apart will shape how the numbers are read.
  • Energy and fuel. The Board's 29 September statement said "global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts", and that "Global oil supply disruptions are maintaining upward pressure on global and domestic energy prices and inflation." The Financial Stability Review added that energy prices rose sharply again in September in response to Middle East developments.
  • Spillovers into other prices. The statement said "Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services." The breadth of price rises beyond fuel is the kind of detail that helps show whether pressure is spreading.
  • Food and technology. The Governor told parliament that "The Middle East conflict, the AI boom and extreme weather events are contributing to upward pressure on a range of energy, agricultural and technology-related prices." The Board also said "AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology-related goods."
  • Expectations. The statement noted that "Short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated." Bullock said: "It's critical that we stop expectations for high inflation from becoming embedded in price-setting decisions."

How the release fits the November meeting

The 28 October data will not be the only input. The Board's statement said recent data suggest growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected, and it also flagged signs that "growth in consumer spending is easing gradually as expected." The labour market matters too: Bullock said on 29 September that the unemployment rate "has risen from 3.5 per cent over the past couple of years to 4.6 per cent", while adding, "we still think the labour market is a little bit tight."

The November Statement on Monetary Policy will also replace the August forecasts, which have been overtaken in some respects. The August outlook said "Trimmed mean inflation is expected to remain above 3 per cent until mid-2027, before easing to 2.5 per cent by early 2028". It also said "The forecasts assume less than one full cash rate increase by the end of 2026, before a small reduction in the cash rate further out." The Board then raised the cash rate by a full 25 basis points in September, and energy prices have since come in much higher than assumed.

Before any of that, the minutes of the September meeting are due on 13 October at 11.30 am AEDT. They may add detail on how the Board weighed the data it had at the time.

As for what the Board will do in November, the RBA has given no promise either way. Its statement said: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed."

Questions to keep in mind

A few neutral questions can help frame the numbers without reading too much into one data point:

  • Is the headline figure moving closer to, or further from, underlying inflation?
  • Are price rises concentrated in energy and a few categories, or becoming more widespread?
  • How do the figures compare with the RBA's stated aim of getting inflation back within the 2–3 per cent target?

Hauser said on 8 September that "Inflation is due to be back in target by the end of next year", meaning by the end of 2027. Each new release is a chance to check progress against that goal.

The bottom line

The 28 October CPI update is the last major inflation reading before the RBA's 3 November decision. Headline inflation was 4.0 per cent in August, underlying inflation has been around 3.5 per cent, and the bank has named energy, fuel spillovers, food, technology and inflation expectations as areas of concern. The release will not decide the Board's next move on its own, but it will be one of the most closely watched pieces of evidence the Board has in hand.