European gas has climbed to its highest level in almost four years. The Dutch TTF benchmark traded at €88.41 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on 19 October, up 0.99 per cent on the day. Prices have more than tripled since January and are up 179 per cent on a year ago.

The cause is a supply shock that began in the Gulf. The war with Iran has disabled part of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry and throttled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe, now more reliant on LNG than ever, is paying to compete for what remains.

Europe's gas benchmark

The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is a virtual trading point on the Dutch gas grid. Its front-month contract is the reference price for gas across continental Europe, feeding into power prices and household bills. It traded around €30-31/MWh before the Middle East conflict escalated, according to Euronews.

How the Gulf war reached Europe's gas price

Qatar is the core of the story. QatarEnergy halted LNG production on 4 March after Iranian attacks and declared force majeure. Missile strikes on Ras Laffan later that month knocked out two of its 14 export trains. That removes 12.8 million tonnes a year, about 17 per cent of Qatar's capacity, for three to five years.

The rest of Qatar's capacity is stuck behind Hormuz, its only export route. Qatar has extended force majeure month by month.

Europe's direct exposure is limited. Qatar supplied about 8 per cent of EU LNG imports in 2025, according to ENTSOG, the network operators' body. The damage comes through the global market, as Asian buyers who lost Qatari cargoes compete for Atlantic supply.

The storage gap

Storage is the immediate worry. EU sites were 74.3 per cent full on 18 October, according to Trading Economics, against a mid-October average of about 86 per cent.

Brussels has lowered the bar. The normal target is 90 per cent by 1 November, but Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged ministers in September to settle for 80 per cent.

ENTSOG says Europe can meet demand in an average winter. A cold winter with tight LNG supply could cut storage to 11 per cent by the end of March. That is the level of strategic reserves.

This month's surge

The latest leg higher began in mid-September. TTF rose 20.7 per cent over the past month and 4.8 per cent in the past week. On 13 October it touched €86/MWh after Gassco reported an unplanned outage at Norway's Kårstø processing plant.

Rabobank expects Middle Eastern LNG exports to be lower in October than in September.

Industry and households

Industry is feeling it first. Fertiliser makers are especially exposed, because gas is both fuel and feedstock. France's LAT Nitrogen moved in March to end fertiliser production at Grandpuits.

Households are next. Jørgensen says Europe faces a price crisis rather than a supply shortage. The Commission has proposed targeted support for vulnerable households and is considering joint energy purchases.

Europe versus Asia

Europe's gain has partly been Asia's loss. Asian LNG imports fell to about 20.1 million tonnes in September, the lowest for the month in eight years, according to Kpler estimates. China, the most price-sensitive buyer, cut purchases for a second month as spot prices topped US$26/MMBtu.

Yukio Kani, chairman of Japan's Jera, the world's largest LNG buyer, said this month that he does not expect Qatari supply back soon. He expects spot prices to rise further because of Europe's low storage and its ban on Russian LNG from January.

The US has filled much of Europe's gap. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) expects it to supply two-thirds of Europe's LNG imports this year.

The Australian angle

Australia is the other big winner. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources forecasts LNG export earnings rising from A$57 billion in 2025-26 to A$70 billion in 2026-27.

Metric

Value

Price (EUR/MWh)

88.41

Daily change

+0.87 (+0.99%)

Weekly change

+4.81%

Monthly change

+20.70%

Year to date

+213.95%

Year on year

+178.56%

Price date

19 October 2026