Key Highlights

  • The October monthly CPI indicator is due on 25 November 2026.
  • It is the first Inflation data since the November rate rise.
  • The RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 4.5% in the December 2026 quarter.
  • The release comes ahead of the 8 December cash rate decision.

The October monthly CPI indicator lands on 25 November, the first inflation reading since the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85 per cent and the last major one before the Board meets on 8 December.

Thirteen days separate today, 12 November 2026, from the next monthly reading of consumer prices. In an ordinary month, a single CPI print would be one data point among many. This one arrives at an unusually sensitive moment: three weeks after a split decision to raise rates, and less than two weeks before the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) final cash rate decision of the year. That timing, rather than any particular expected number, is why the release has drawn attention.

Where the numbers stand going in

The most recent monthly indicator showed annual CPI growth of 4.3 per cent for the September month, according to the RBA website. That is a headline figure, covering the full basket of goods and services.

It sits alongside two other measures from the September quarter. The November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) overview says: "Headline inflation was 3.9 per cent over the year to the September quarter and trimmed mean inflation was 3.7 per cent." The quarterly headline figure covers the whole quarter rather than a single month, and trimmed mean is an underlying measure that sets aside the most extreme price changes. Comparing the October monthly reading with either of these quarterly numbers would not be like for like; the natural comparison is with the September month's 4.3 per cent.

What the RBA has already pencilled in

The RBA's forecasts set the context for how the October figure might be read. The SMP states: "Headline inflation is expected to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December 2026 quarter". That forecast is up sharply from the 3.6 per cent the August SMP had projected for the same quarter.

Energy is a major reason for the revision. The Outlook chapter notes: "The assumed oil price in the December quarter is 35 per cent higher than assumed in August".

October is the first month of the December quarter. It does, however, offer the earliest glimpse of how prices are moving in the quarter where the RBA expects headline inflation to peak.

Because a rise in headline inflation is already expected, a higher monthly figure would not automatically signal a surprise. The more informative question may be whether the increase looks concentrated in energy-related items or broader-based.

Why the Board will be watching

The Board's November statement made inflation the centre of its reasoning. It said "Inflation is now forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027" and "the Board judged that a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted".

Governor Michele Bullock drew a distinction that bears directly on how the October reading may be interpreted: "we are not tightening monetary policy because of the direct impact of oil prices on inflation." The concern, she said, was second-round effects: "It is critical that we stop expectations for high inflation from becoming embedded in price-setting decisions".

That framing means the composition of the October print could matter as much as its headline. A reading driven mostly by fuel would fit the RBA's existing story. Evidence of price rises spreading more widely would bear on the embedding risk the Governor highlighted.

The split vote adds to the interest. Six members voted to raise the cash rate to 4.85 per cent and three voted to hold at 4.60 per cent. The Board's stated approach – "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target" – leaves room for data to shape the next decision in either direction.

A crowded fortnight

The October CPI is not the only RBA-related event between now and the December meeting. In sequence:

  • 17 November: Governor Bullock appears on a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney at 10.00 am AEDT, followed by the minutes of the November Monetary Policy Board meeting at 11.30 am AEDT.
  • 19 November: Payments System Board meeting.
  • 20 November: Monetary Policy Board member Renée Fry-McKibbin speaks at CAMA in Canberra.
  • 25 November: the October monthly CPI indicator, and a speech by David Jacobs, Head of Domestic Markets, at the Australian securitisation conference in Sydney.
  • 26 November: the RBA Bulletin.
  • 8 December, 2.30 pm: the next cash rate decision.

The minutes will arrive first, so by 25 November markets and households will have a fuller account of how the Board debated the November move. The CPI print will then be read against that account.

Market pricing also forms part of the picture. Before the November meeting, the SMP notes, overnight indexed swap pricing implied "market participants assign an 85 per cent probability to a cash rate increase in November". The forecasts are based on a market-implied cash rate path that "increases by 35 basis points by mid-2027, before declining a little to stabilise at 4.8 per cent in 2028." A new inflation reading is one of the things that can shift those expectations.

The bottom line

The 25 November release carries weight because of when it lands, not because any single month decides policy. It is the first inflation data since the November rise, the first look inside the quarter where the RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 4.5 per cent, and the last major price reading before the 8 December decision. It should be read for what it is – a monthly headline measure – and alongside the minutes, the quarterly forecasts and the Board's focus on whether high inflation is becoming embedded.