Before weighing any change to a home loan, borrowers may find it useful to understand what the RBA has actually published about rates, repayments, buffers and the outlook since September's rise.

A rate rise tends to prompt a familiar question in many households: is it time to look at the mortgage? This article does not answer that question for anyone. Whether any loan change suits a particular borrower depends on individual circumstances, and that is a matter for a licensed professional. What it does offer is a summary of the RBA's own published facts, so borrowers can approach any conversation with a lender, broker or adviser better informed.

Where the cash rate stands, and what a quarter point means

On 29 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Board unanimously raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points, from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent. The new rate took effect on 30 September.

According to Governor Michele Bullock, that was the fourth increase in 2026, including three earlier in the year between February and May. It follows a period of easing in 2025, when the cash rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points to 4.10 per cent on 19 February and by another 0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent on 21 May.

The cash rate is the RBA's policy rate, not a mortgage rate. Lenders set their own variable rates, which are influenced by the cash rate and other funding costs. That is why changes in the cash rate do not translate automatically or identically into every borrower's rate.

To show the scale of a quarter-point move, here is an illustrative example. The interest rates are hypothetical and are not RBA or lender figures.

  • Loan: $550,000, 30-year principal and interest, monthly repayments.
  • At an assumed 6.00 per cent: $3,297.53 a month.
  • At an assumed 6.25 per cent: $3,386.44 a month.
  • Difference: about $88.92 a month.

Actual effects vary with the loan size, remaining term, rate and loan type. Borrowers with fixed-rate loans will not see an immediate change until their fixed term ends.

What the RBA's data say about borrowers

The RBA's latest assessments suggest most mortgage holders have so far absorbed higher repayments, although pressure has increased.

  • Repayment burden: scheduled mortgage payments rose to around 10 per cent of household disposable income, around their 2024 peak, according to the minutes of the September meeting.
  • Cash-flow shortfall: the October Financial Stability Review says the share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers in cash-flow shortfall "increased a little over the first half of 2026, but remains relatively low at around 2 per cent".
  • Savings buffers: the review describes "the median borrower able to cover over a year of scheduled mortgage payments at current interest rates", counting offset and redraw balances. The minutes put median buffers at just under one year of repayments in the lowest income quintile and almost two years in the highest.
  • Arrears: loans 90 or more days in arrears have "increased a little over the year to date but remains around pre-pandemic levels".

Bullock highlighted the role of offset accounts at her media conference: "remember that a lot of people have a mortgage, and then they have an offset account, which sits in the background."

Housing prices matter too. Equity, the gap between a property's value and the loan secured against it, is one of the factors lenders generally consider when assessing a loan. That makes housing prices relevant for anyone thinking about their mortgage.

The Board's decision statement says housing prices have fallen in most capital cities. The minutes say they fell by more than expected, and that staff judge the cumulative fall is likely to be greater than had been assumed in August. New housing loan commitments also fell sharply, led by investors.

At the same time, the FSR says "less than 1 per cent of borrowers" are currently in negative equity, and the minutes say very few borrowers would be in negative equity even if housing prices fell 20 per cent.

What the RBA has and has not said about what comes next

Borrowers often want to know where rates are heading. The RBA has been explicit that it is not offering a promise either way. "I'm not going to give you forward guidance," Bullock said. She also said: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down."

The September minutes recorded market pricing at the time implying "an additional increase of around 15 basis points by the end of the year", plus another 30 basis points in the first half of 2027. That is market pricing, not an RBA forecast, and it can change.

Other facts that bear on the outlook:

  • The next cash rate decision is due at 2.30 pm on 3 November 2026.
  • The next CPI update is listed for 28 October 2026.
  • Headline monthly CPI was 4.0 per cent in August 2026, while trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was 3.6 per cent over the year to the June quarter. The target is 2 to 3 per cent.
  • Bullock said rate changes take about 12 to 18 months to have their full effect.

Questions some borrowers ask

Without suggesting any course of action, these are the kinds of questions borrowers commonly raise with professionals when reviewing a loan:

  • How would my repayments change under different interest rate scenarios?
  • What fees or costs would apply to changing my loan?
  • How do fixed and variable features, offset accounts and redraw facilities compare for my situation?
  • How might a lower property valuation affect my options?
  • What buffer of savings do I have if costs rise further?

The bottom line

The RBA's published facts show a cash rate of 4.60 per cent after four increases in 2026, mortgage payments near their 2024 peak as a share of income, and a small but slightly rising share of borrowers under cash-flow pressure, with most holding savings buffers. Housing prices have fallen in most capital cities, though negative equity remains rare. The RBA has declined to give forward guidance. Any decision about a home loan depends on personal circumstances, and borrowers may wish to seek advice from a licensed financial professional or credit provider before acting.