Between 13 and 21 October, the Reserve Bank has a crowded public calendar, with board minutes, its annual report and four appearances by senior officials, all ahead of the next CPI release and the 3 November rate decision.

After a September rate rise and a busy start to October, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is heading into one of its more crowded stretches of public communication. Its homepage lists six scheduled events between Tuesday 13 October and Wednesday 21 October, a nine-day window that runs from the release of the September board minutes to an appearance by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

Each is a chance to hear how the RBA is thinking after lifting the cash rate target to 4.60%. None is a decision in itself. The next policy announcement is at 2.30 pm on 3 November 2026, and the Monetary Policy Board has not committed to a direction.

The calendar at a glance

According to the RBA's homepage, the schedule is:

  • Tuesday 13 October, 11.30 am AEDT: minutes of the Monetary Policy Board's September meeting.
  • Thursday 15 October, after 3.00 pm: RBA Annual Report 2026.
  • Sunday 18 October, 11.00 am: Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent scheduled for an interview.
  • Monday 19 October, 10.05 am: Kent in a fireside chat at the CBA Global Markets Conference.
  • Tuesday 20 October, 9.50 am: Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy, in a fireside chat at the AFIA conference.
  • Wednesday 21 October, 9.30 am: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at the Citi ANZ Investment Conference.

The run of events is followed a week later by the next CPI release, on 28 October, and then by the Board's decision on 3 November.

Tuesday and Thursday: the minutes and the annual report

The minutes come first and are likely to draw the most attention. They will record the Board's discussion at the meeting where it raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60%, a unanimous decision effective 30 September.

The Board's statement on the day set out its reasoning. Inflation remained elevated, and some of the upside risks flagged in August were materialising: a broader Middle East conflict and higher global energy prices, AI-related demand lifting technology goods prices, capacity pressures in the economy and firms raising or planning to raise prices. Recent inflation outcomes had been stronger than expected. The Board judged that "a further tightening of financial conditions" was warranted to return inflation to target within a reasonable period.

The August minutes offer a template for what to look for. At that meeting, the Board considered two options, a 25 basis point rise or leaving the rate unchanged "for the time being", and chose to hold at 4.35%, while "remaining alert to the upside risks to the inflation outlook". The September minutes should show how that assessment shifted in the following weeks.

The RBA Annual Report 2026 is scheduled for release after 3.00 pm on Thursday 15 October. It arrives in a year that has so far included four cash rate increases totalling one percentage point, a major overhaul of card surcharging and interchange, and ongoing scrutiny of ASX.

Sunday to Wednesday: Kent, Connolly and Hauser

Christopher Kent appears twice in two days, first in an interview on Sunday and then at the CBA Global Markets Conference on Monday morning.

In his remarks in Sydney on 13 August, when the cash rate was 4.35%, he said "the Board judged that monetary policy is somewhat restrictive" and that "The current cash rate is around the top of the range of central estimates of the neutral rate."

He also observed that "Scheduled mortgage payments have risen and are now close to their 2024 peak as a share of household disposable income." He pointed to the housing market and the exchange rate as well. "Housing prices have declined in Sydney and Melbourne, with declines becoming increasingly broad-based," he said, and he noted "the Australian dollar appreciating by around 5 per cent on a trade-weighted basis since the start of the year." The cash rate has risen by a further 25 basis points since those remarks, which gives his October appearances added interest.

Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy, speaks at the AFIA conference on Tuesday 20 October. His appearance follows the end of card surcharges on 1 October and comes ten days before the first quarterly publication of aggregate interchange and scheme fee data by card networks and merchant service fee data by acquirers, due by 30 October.

The window closes with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at the Citi ANZ Investment Conference on Wednesday 21 October. As with the other appearances, its focus will become clear on the day.

The backdrop: two inflation reads and an open decision

Whatever is said across the nine days will be heard against a clear set of numbers. Headline inflation on the monthly CPI indicator was 4.0% over the year to August. In the June quarter, headline CPI was 3.9% and the trimmed mean, an underlying measure, was 3.6%. Governor Michele Bullock described underlying inflation on 29 September as "about 3.5 per cent", above the 2.5% midpoint of the 2–3% target.

The forecasts in the August Statement on Monetary Policy were prepared before the September hike, using a cash rate assumption of around 4.3–4.5%. They had trimmed mean inflation at 3.3% by December 2026.

Bullock has been explicit that the Board is keeping its options open. "I'm not going to give you forward guidance," she said on 29 September, while also stating: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down." The Board's own statement said it would remain attentive to the data.

The bottom line

The six events between 13 and 21 October will give markets, borrowers and businesses plenty of RBA commentary to absorb: the September minutes on Tuesday, the annual report on Thursday, two appearances by Christopher Kent, a payments-focused session with Ellis Connolly and Andrew Hauser's Citi appearance. None of them is a policy decision. The next CPI release on 28 October and the Board's announcement at 2.30 pm on 3 November remain the key dates, and the Board has presented that decision as open.