RBA Rate Decision Looms as CBA Brings Forward Its September Hike Call

Aditi Sarkar

21 September 2026 10:25 PM AEST

RBA Rate Decision Looms as CBA Brings Forward Its September Hike Call

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Key Highlights

CBA expects a 25bp RBA increase to 4.60% at the 28–29 September meeting.
Higher oil prices, Inflation data and recent RBA commentary contributed to CBA bringing forward its call.
Financial markets had priced a September increase at about 90% when CBA published its update.
CBA expects the possibility of further increases to remain open if inflation stays elevated.

Australia’s next interest-rate decision is approaching with CBA economists now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28–29 September meeting. The revised call brings forward an increase previously expected in November and reflects CBA’s assessment of inflation risks, oil prices, economic data and recent RBA communication.

Why the September Meeting Is in Focus

CBA’s Australian Economics team expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28–29 September meeting. The bank had previously expected a November move, but it brought the forecast forward after reassessing inflation risks, economic data and recent central-bank communication.

Inflation and Oil Prices

CBA highlighted the rise in global oil prices as one Factor increasing the risk of higher petrol and diesel costs feeding into inflation. It also pointed to economic data that had remained firmer than the RBA expected and recent commentary from senior RBA officials focused on upside inflation risks.

Economic Context

A higher cash rate would add to restrictive monetary conditions. CBA noted that the economy is slowing, the labour market is moving closer to balance and the housing market is undergoing a downturn. These conditions form part of the assessment of how much further tightening may be required.

Risks to Consider

The RBA decision remains uncertain until formally announced. Inflation, labour-market data, global energy prices and geopolitical developments can alter the outlook. A higher cash rate can increase borrowing costs and place additional pressure on household cash flow, Business Investment and housing activity.

What to Watch Next

The 28–29 September RBA meeting is the immediate focus. Beyond that decision, September-quarter inflation will be important for the path of rates. CBA said another increase is not its current base case, although a high trimmed-mean inflation result could reopen the case for further tightening.

Summary

The outlook remains dependent on economic conditions, policy decisions and final implementation details. Readers can follow official releases and subsequent updates for changes to the assumptions and rules discussed in this article.

FAQs

Q: What does CBA expect at the September RBA meeting?

A: CBA expects a 25 basis point increase that would take the cash rate to 4.60%.

Q: Why did CBA bring forward its rate-rise call?

A: It cited higher oil prices, inflation data, economic conditions and recent RBA commentary.

Q: Does CBA expect another increase after September?

A: Another increase is not CBA’s current base case, although inflation outcomes could change the outlook.

Q: When does CBA expect rate cuts to begin?

A: Its current forecast has the first reduction in August 2027, followed by another in November.

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