It is rare for a central banker to admit, on national television, that the outcome of a looming Interest Rate decision is genuinely uncertain. Yet that is close to what Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser did on the ABC's 7.30 on 8 September 2026. Asked whether the Monetary Policy Board had done enough to tame inflation, or whether more was needed, Hauser declined to pretend the answer was settled. His remarks offered a window into a real internal debate ahead of the Board's 28 and 29 September meeting, and pushed back firmly against the suggestion that another rate rise is a foregone conclusion. With the cash rate at 4.35 per cent and Inflation above target, that debate is anything but academic.

What the RBA Said

Hauser did not soften the starting point. "Inflation is too high," he said, echoing the language of the Board's August statement.

But he resisted any framing of certainty. Asked about the prospect of an "inevitable" hike, he replied: "the word inevitable is yours, very cleverly done, but it wasn't my word." He returned to the theme later, insisting: "we have a real debate. If it were inevitable, you wouldn't need us there."

The core question, as Hauser put it, was simply: "have we done enough or is more needed?" He set out three specific risks that could push inflation up rather than down. The first was the Middle East crisis and its effect on energy and Commodity prices. The second was the possibility of an unexpected, AI-driven global boom. The third was weakened Australian Supply potential, which would limit how fast the economy can grow without generating inflation.

Hauser also noted that recent inflation had come in "a little stronger than we'd expected" and growth "a bit stronger", the kind of data that keeps the case for further tightening alive.

The Key Numbers

Cash rate: 4.35%. Inflation: 3.5% headline, 3.6% trimmed mean. House prices ~50% above decade lows. Inflation expected back in band by end-2027.

What Could Happen Next

The Board meets on 28 and 29 September, with the decision on 29 September. Hauser's comments suggest the debate could genuinely go either way. If the risks he identified show signs of materialising, the case for a further 0.25 percentage point rise, which would take the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, strengthens. If incoming data instead confirm inflation is easing and the economy is cooling, a further hold at 4.35 per cent remains on the table.

Beyond the immediate decision, Hauser's timeline is instructive. By saying inflation is due back in target by the end of 2027, he signalled that the RBA does not expect a quick return to the midpoint, consistent with the August outlook pointing to early 2028 for the middle of the band. That implies policy is likely to stay restrictive for some time, whatever happens in September.

Conclusion

Andrew Hauser's 7.30 interview was notable less for what it predicted than for what it refused to predict. He confirmed inflation is too high, laid out three upside risks, and acknowledged recent data had run a little stronger than expected. But he pointedly declined to call a September hike inevitable, insisting instead that the Board faces "a real debate". With the cash rate at 4.35 per cent, inflation at 3.5 per cent headline and 3.6 per cent underlying, and markets split, that candour is a useful corrective to any assumption that the outcome is already decided.