Key Highlights

  • The decision statement and the Statement on Monetary Policy are both released at 2.30 pm (AEDT) on 3 November, with a media conference at 3.30 pm.
  • The Chart Pack follows on 4 November and the minutes of the November meeting on 17 November.
  • The next Board meeting is on 7–8 December, with a decision at 2.30 pm on 8 December.

At 2.30 pm (AEDT) on Melbourne Cup Day, the Reserve Bank will publish both its cash rate decision and a new Statement on Monetary Policy, giving markets and households two documents to digest at once.

On many Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision days, attention centres on a single short statement. Tuesday 3 November 2026 is different. According to the RBA's calendar, the Monetary Policy Board's decision statement and the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), which contains the Bank's new economic forecasts, are both scheduled for release at 2.30 pm (AEDT). Governor Michele Bullock's media conference follows at 3.30 pm.

That pairing means the afternoon will deliver not only what the Board has decided, but a fuller account of why. Here is a guide to what each release is, how they fit together, and the days that follow.

The timetable at a glance

The RBA calendar sets out the sequence:

  • 2–3 November: Monetary Policy Board meeting.
  • 3 November, 2.30 pm: Decision statement and Statement on Monetary Policy released.
  • 3 November, 3.30 pm: Governor's media conference.
  • 4 November: Chart Pack.
  • 17 November: Minutes of the November meeting.

3 November is also Melbourne Cup Day, which means the releases land on an afternoon when many Australians' attention will be elsewhere.

Release one: the decision statement

The decision statement announces whether the cash rate target changes and sets out the Board's reasoning in brief. The current target is 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September 2026, following a 25 basis point increase at the September meeting. That was the fourth rise this year, for a cumulative 100 basis points.

The September statement provides a template for the kind of language to watch. It said "the Board judged that, in light of recent developments, a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted", described a readiness to respond "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed", and said "the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks".

The Board has not yet made its November decision, and this article does not predict it. Whatever the outcome, the wording of the statement, including any change to that conditional language, is usually read as closely as the decision itself.

Release two: the Statement on Monetary Policy

The SMP is the RBA's detailed assessment of the economy, including its forecasts for inflation, growth and the labour market. Its arrival on the same afternoon is especially significant this time, because the Governor has already signalled the forecasts are likely to change.

In her opening statement to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee on 28 October, she reminded senators that the August SMP had projected inflation returning to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target only in late 2027, with risks skewed to the upside. She then said: "global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts". And: "Inflation will therefore likely be higher than was our base case in August."

The new SMP will show how large that revision is, and what it implies for the timeline back to the 2.5 per cent midpoint. The specific forecast numbers are not yet known.

The SMP will also be the Bank's first full forecast document since several significant developments, including:

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) September CPI, released 28 October, showing headline inflation of 4.3 per cent and trimmed mean (underlying) inflation of 3.6 per cent.
  • A re-escalation of the Middle East conflict, which the Governor noted, alongside elevated short-term inflation expectations.
  • An unemployment rate that has risen "a little more than we had expected", in the Governor's words, though the Bank judges the labour market to be slightly tighter than previously thought.
  • Growth in business investment, mainly in data centres and renewable energy, and household spending growth moderating only gradually.

Reading them together, and what follows

Because the decision and forecasts are released at once, they can be read as a package. The Board's judgement about where inflation is heading will help explain its decision on the cash rate.

The 3.30 pm media conference gives journalists an opportunity to probe both. At the September conference, Governor Bullock made clear the limits of what she will say about the future: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance." She also set out the Board's general stance: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down." Those remarks suggest the media conference is more likely to elaborate on the Bank's reasoning than to commit to a future path.

The Chart Pack follows on 4 November, and the minutes on 17 November will offer a fuller account of the Board's discussion at the November meeting.

The days after Cup Day also bring several scheduled public appearances by RBA officials, according to the calendar. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is due to deliver the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the ANU on 5 November. Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter is due to speak at the UBS Australasia Conference on 9 November, and Monetary Policy Board member Marnie Baker AM is scheduled to speak at the ARCA Credit Summit on 12 November. Governor Bullock is due to appear on a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum on 17 November.

The next Board meeting after November is on 7–8 December, with a decision at 2.30 pm on 8 December.

The bottom line

On 3 November, the RBA will release a decision and a forecast document at the same moment, followed by the Governor's media conference an hour later. The Governor has already indicated that the inflation forecast is likely to be revised higher than August's base case, but the decision itself remains to be made.

For households and businesses, it is worth knowing that the SMP will provide the most detailed explanation of the Bank's thinking, and that the minutes on 17 November will add further detail. Reading the decision and the forecasts together will give the clearest picture of how the Board sees the path ahead.