Highlights

  • WTI crude futures rose 0.7% to USD 91.14 per barrel as tanker incidents revived Supply concerns.
  • Brent futures headed for a weekly fall exceeding 15%, while WTI remained on course to lose 12%.
  • At least five vessels reported incidents since Sunday amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Political developments and diplomatic contacts shaped expectations for a potential easing of the Middle East conflict.

Crude oil staged a recovery on Friday, 6 November 2026, but the rebound did little to erase the pressure building across the week. Fresh incidents involving tankers in the Middle East brought supply disruptions back into focus, while changing expectations around the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran kept traders weighing the prospect of a diplomatic settlement against the difficulty of restoring normal oil shipments.

A Friday Rebound Against a Difficult Weekly Backdrop

In Asian trading, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced 0.7% to USD 91.14 per barrel as of 00:43 GMT. The increase followed Thursday’s recovery, when Brent Crude futures settled nearly 4% higher and WTI gained 2.7%. Those gains came immediately after a sharp Wednesday decline that pushed both benchmarks to their lowest closing levels since 31 August.

Wednesday’s sell-off exceeded 8% for both benchmarks. Despite the subsequent recovery, Brent futures were positioned for a weekly decline of more than 15%, while WTI was headed for a loss of around 12%. Friday’s advance therefore occurred within a market still absorbing a substantial shift in prices over several sessions.

Strait of Hormuz Incidents Return Supply Risks to the Forefront

A new series of reported maritime incidents complicated the supply outlook. At least five vessels had reported incidents since Sunday, with the pace of attacks drawing closer to the 35 vessel incidents recorded in October. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate events after attempting to travel through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway remains central to concerns about the movement of energy supplies. Even as expectations of diplomatic progress affected prices, doubts persisted over how quickly a lasting agreement could be reached and whether shipments through the strait could reliably resume. The tanker incidents added a separate operational concern to those political questions.

Red Sea Warnings Broaden the Regional Picture

Disruption concerns were not confined to the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia warned of potential danger near Yanbu, its oil export hub on the Red Sea, as attacks on the kingdom by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants continued. The warning placed another important oil export location within the broader picture of regional security developments.

Meanwhile, pressure on energy infrastructure extended beyond the Middle East. Ukraine renewed attacks on Russian oil refineries, and the Ryazan refinery, described as one of Russia’s largest, appeared to have been targeted during an overnight drone attack. Together, these developments kept several distinct sources of potential supply disruption in view.

US Midterm Results Reshape Expectations for Diplomacy

The political backdrop also shifted after the U.S. midterm elections. Democrats took control of both houses of Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republicans, initially encouraging expectations that additional political pressure could accelerate efforts to end the conflict with Iran. Those hopes contributed to the earlier retreat in crude prices as the market reconsidered the possibility of renewed diplomatic engagement.

However, the election result offered no assurance of an imminent breakthrough. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi separately spoke with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts about diplomatic efforts to support regional stability. The contacts showed that discussions continued, without establishing a timetable for any agreement or for a dependable restoration of oil flows.

What Remains in Focus for Oil Markets

The immediate picture combines a sharp weekly decline with a late rebound driven by renewed shipping concerns. Market attention remains on reported vessel incidents, developments around export routes and the progress of regional diplomacy. For Brent and WTI, the contrast between Thursday’s gains and the expected weekly losses captures the competing forces reflected in early Friday trading.