Nine days before the Board's latest rate rise, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter told a prime-time television audience the RBA was not trying to push people out of their homes. How does that pledge read now?

When Sarah Hunter sat down for an interview that aired on 25 October 2026, the cash rate stood at 4.60% and she referred to "four rate hikes this year". Nine days later, on 3 November, the Monetary Policy Board made it five, lifting the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, effective 4 November.

Among the lines Hunter, the RBA's Assistant Governor (Economic), offered viewers was one aimed squarely at households worried about their mortgages: "We're not trying to put people out of their homes."

With another increase now confirmed, that statement deserves a second look, both for what it promised and for what it did not.

What Hunter actually said

The interview covered a range of ground. Among Hunter's remarks:

  • "We don't want to live with high Inflation for a long time."
  • "We have actually brought inflation down over the last few years."
  • "We've managed to do that and not see a really big increase in the Unemployment rate."
  • "We're not trying to achieve a sharp stop or a really big downturn or anything like that."
  • On recession: "We don't see any signs of that yet in any of the data that we track."
  • "I'm not going to front run what the Board might or might not do with interest rates."

Read together, the message is that the RBA intends to slow the economy, not break it. The pledge about homes is a statement of intent, not a guarantee about outcomes for every household.

Hunter also reached back into history, citing 1970s price controls and an early-1980s wage freeze as failed alternatives.

Why the history matters

Monetary Policy Board member Iain Ross AO, in a 22 September speech titled "A Wage-price Spiral: What are the Chances?", recounted that inflation rose from about 3% in 1969 to over 16% in 1974, and that quarterly wage indexation was introduced from early 1975 and abandoned in July 1981.

Ross concluded that "there is little evidence that a self-sustaining Wage-Price Spiral has emerged following the latest inflationary episode." Inflation in Australia peaked at 7.9% at end-2022, and the current target is 2–3%.

The pressure on households since the interview

How has the backdrop changed since 25 October? The 3 November statement was frank: "The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen."

On the inflation side, the Board said "Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based." Monthly headline CPI was 4.3% over the year to September 2026. Trimmed-mean inflation, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, was 3.7% over the year to the September quarter.

On the household side, the RBA's evidence suggests most Mortgage holders still have room, though the figures predate the latest move:

  • The September minutes found fewer than 2% of owner-occupier borrowers had a Cash Flow shortfall.
  • Median savings buffers ranged from just under one year of scheduled repayments for the lowest income quintile to almost two years for the highest.
  • Very few borrowers would be in Negative equity even if housing prices fell 20%.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, on 21 October, said about 2% of mortgages were in negative cash flow. He also noted that about 15% of renters were in negative cash flow, a reminder that housing stress is not confined to borrowers.

The October Financial Stability Review said: "Most Australian households with mortgages remain well placed to manage more difficult conditions."

On those numbers, the RBA's assessment that it is not forcing households from their homes is consistent with its own data. Whether that holds will depend in large part on the labour market.

The jobs test

Hunter pointed to the RBA's record of bringing inflation down without "a really big increase in the unemployment rate". The November Statement on Monetary Policy shows that test getting harder.

The SMP forecasts the unemployment rate at 4.7% by December 2026, 4.9% by December 2027 and 5.1% by December 2028, compared with 4.4% in June 2026. In August, the forecasts were 4.5%, 4.7% and 4.8% for the same dates. The statement acknowledged that "the unemployment rate is projected to rise by more than expected in the August forecasts", although employment is still expected to keep growing. All of these are forecasts and carry heightened uncertainty.

Hauser has not shied away from the trade-off: "We need a period of below-trend growth to bring inflation down, and we're seeing that happening." He added: "No lost Job is one to celebrate."

Rising unemployment is the channel most likely to turn a manageable mortgage into an unmanageable one, because it can cut income sharply. That is where Hunter's pledge will ultimately be judged.

Hunter declined to pre-empt the Board. The 3 November decision was split 6–3, with six members voting to raise and three voting to hold at 4.60%, in contrast with September's unanimous decision. Individual votes were not named.

The Board's statement framed its choice around persistence: "The Board is conscious of the period in which inflation has been too high." It also warned that "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded."

The bottom line

Hunter's pledge that the RBA is "not trying to put people out of their homes" was a statement of intent, delivered before the fifth rate rise of 2026 took the cash rate to 4.85%. RBA data from before the move show few borrowers in shortfall and most with buffers, but renters are under more pressure and unemployment is now forecast to rise faster than in August. The 8 December decision will be the next marker. Households concerned about their own situation can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.