The September minutes show the Monetary Policy Board agreed without division on a 25 basis point rise, but they also show a Board keeping its options open rather than signalling its next step.

When the minutes of the Monetary Policy Board's September meeting were published on 13 October, one line stood out for borrowers trying to read the room: the Board "decided unanimously to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent." There was no recorded split and no member holding out for a pause.

That unanimity is worth understanding, but so are its limits. A unanimous vote tells borrowers how the Board saw the evidence at the end of September. It does not, on its own, tell them what will happen at the next cash rate update, scheduled for 2.30 pm on 3 November 2026.

Who was in the room

The minutes list the members present at the 28–29 September meeting:

  • Michele Bullock (Governor and Chair)
  • Andrew Hauser (Deputy Governor and Deputy Chair)
  • Marnie Baker AM
  • Melinda Cilento
  • Renée Fry-McKibbin
  • Carolyn Hewson AO
  • Bruce Preston
  • Iain Ross AO
  • Jenny Wilkinson PSM

Assistant Governors Sarah Hunter, Brad Jones and Christopher Kent also participated. The decision took the cash rate target from 4.35% to 4.60%, effective 30 September. Governor Bullock said at her media conference that it was the fourth increase of 2026, following three earlier in the year between February and May.

Why members found the case convincing

The minutes set out arguments on both sides before recording the decision. On the side of raising, members noted that upside risks to inflation had materialised, that a timely response would best balance the Board's objectives, and that the existing setting might not restore balance in a reasonable timeframe. They also observed that a 4.35% cash rate may be "less restrictive" than it was two years earlier if the neutral rate has risen.

The evidence behind that assessment included:

  • July inflation data that were stronger than expected, particularly for market services
  • domestic petrol and diesel prices 13% higher than forecast in August
  • a share of items with prices rising by more than 2½% that was "well above average"
  • unit labour cost growth above what is consistent with the inflation target, driven mainly by subdued productivity growth rather than strong nominal wages.

Staff judged that the upside surprise more likely reflected domestic capacity pressures than the pass-through of Middle East cost shocks, and they expected higher underlying inflation in the September quarter than had been forecast in August.

The case for holding was weighed as well. Members considered downside risks to activity and employment, the possibility of a larger-than-expected effect from falling housing prices, uncertainty in the Middle East and the lagged effects of earlier tightening. In the end, the minutes record that the August forecasts had required several favourable developments that no longer appeared likely to all occur.

Put simply, the unanimity reflects agreement that the balance of evidence had shifted. It is not the same thing as agreement on a pre-set path.

What the Board, and markets, said about what comes next

For borrowers looking towards November, the most relevant passages are the Board's own words about the future, and these are deliberately conditional. The minutes close with the Board saying it "will remain focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment" and will do what it considers necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required."

The decision statement used similar framing: "The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded." It added: "Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions."

At her media conference on 29 September, Governor Bullock declined to map out a path. "I'm not going to give you forward guidance," she said. On whether September's move would prove sufficient, she was candid: "Now, will it be enough? I don't know." She also said: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down."

Taken together, these statements describe a Board prepared to act again if the data warrant it, without committing to do so at any particular meeting.

The minutes also record where financial markets stood when the Board met. Market pricing implied an increase at the September meeting, then "an additional increase of around 15 basis points by the end of the year", plus a further 30 basis points in the first half of 2027. All surveyed economists had expected an increase in September.

Market pricing is a snapshot of what traders collectively expect, inferred from prices in interest rate markets. It shifts as new information arrives and it is not an RBA forecast. An additional "around 15 basis points" by year-end is smaller than a standard 25 basis point move, which is one reason commentary on the outlook tends to describe it as uncertain rather than settled.

The data that will land before 3 November

Several releases sit between now and the next decision. The next CPI update is due on 28 October 2026. The latest monthly reading showed headline CPI at 4.0% over the year to August 2026. That is a headline measure, not an underlying one. Underlying inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, was 3.6% over the year to the June quarter, when headline CPI was 3.9%. The target range is 2–3%, with a midpoint of 2.5%.

The RBA calendar for November lists a Monetary Policy Board meeting, a decision statement, a media conference, a new Statement on Monetary Policy and a Chart Pack. Borrowers will therefore see not just a decision but updated staff analysis that may help explain the Board's reasoning, whichever way it goes.

Questions some borrowers ask at this stage include how a further change in rates would affect their repayments, how large their savings buffer is, and whether an offset or redraw facility forms part of that buffer. Licensed professional advice can help with questions specific to an individual loan.

The bottom line

A unanimous decision signals that the Board saw a clear case for tightening in September. It is not a promise about November. The Board's recorded language is conditional, committing to raise rates "further if required", and the Governor explicitly declined to offer forward guidance. For borrowers, the more informative signals are likely to be the incoming data, including the 28 October CPI update, and the Board's own explanation when it next announces its decision on 3 November.