Nickel Edges Up 0.25% to USD 15,633.02 as Talk of Indonesian Output Cuts Meets Surplus Forecasts

Aditi Sarkar

28 October 2026 06:37 PM AEDT

Nickel Edges Up 0.25% to USD 15,633.02 as Talk of Indonesian Output Cuts Meets Surplus Forecasts

Image Source: Shutterstock

You are reading a free article with opinions that may differ from the recommendation given by Kalkine in its paid research reports. Become a Kalkine member today to get access to our research reports, in-depth technical and fundamental research. Learn more

Start Your Free Trial Now!

Highlights

Nickel traded at USD 15,633.02, up 38.25 (+0.25%), during the session.
The session opened at USD 15,592.27 and reached a high of USD 15,652.52.
Nickel touched a session low of USD 15,557.52 on volume of 4.84K.
LME nickel rose 0.6% to USD 15,650 per tonne on 27 October after falling 1.7% on Monday.
Major Chinese producers are reportedly considering output cuts at their Indonesian operations.
Traders are watching support near USD 15,400 and USD 15,000 and resistance near USD 16,000 and USD 16,400.

Nickel edged 0.25% higher to USD 15,633.02 on 28 October 2026 as talk of output cuts in Indonesia met forecasts of a growing surplus. The session opened at USD 15,592.27 and ranged between USD 15,557.52 and USD 15,652.52, adding 38.25.

The small gain follows a volatile few weeks in which the metal bounced from a nine-month low before giving back part of that rebound.

Nickel Ticks Higher After a Volatile Week

Nickel opened at USD 15,592.27, touched a high of USD 15,652.52 and a low of USD 15,557.52, leaving the latest price at USD 15,633.02 on volume of 4.84K. LME nickel rose 0.6% to USD 15,650 per tonne on 27 October, after falling 1.7% on Monday.

TradingView chart for Nickel

Image source: Tradingview chart, 28 October 2026

Indonesian Output Cuts Under Discussion

Major Chinese producers are reportedly weighing output cuts at their Indonesian operations, including high-pressure acid leaching plants. An August attempt to agree on reductions failed. Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota is lower than in 2025, and applications for 2027 quotas are due on 15 November.

On 21 October, nickel traded 2.1% higher at USD 16,005 per tonne, its fourth straight daily gain after a nine-month low.

Softer Ore Prices and a Lower Benchmark

Indonesian nickel ore prices continued to face downward pressure on 26 October, with medium- and high-grade saprolite falling more sharply than low-grade limonite. Indonesia's energy ministry cut its nickel benchmark mineral price for the second half of October to USD 15,847.67 per tonne, down USD 475 or 2.91%. Smelters are buying cautiously as new 2026 quota allocations reach the market.

Surplus Forecasts and Macro Headwinds

The International Nickel Study Group revised its 2026 forecast to a 19,000-tonne surplus from a 32,000-tonne deficit in April, and forecasts a 70,000-tonne surplus for 2027. Global stainless steel melt shop output rose 5% year on year in the first half of 2026.

The Fed decision at 14:00 ET today, expected to be a hold at 3.75%-4.00%, adds to macro caution, with PCE inflation data due on 29 October.

Technical Outlook: Nickel

Nickel was quoted at USD 15,633.02, against an opening level of USD 15,592.27, a session high of USD 15,652.52 and a session low of USD 15,557.52. The change on the day stood at +38.25, or +0.25%.

Nickel jumped from near USD 14,200 in December to near USD 18,800 in January, reached about USD 20,000 in May and has since slid to near USD 15,100 in mid-October. A rebound toward USD 16,300 in October has partly faded, leaving prices in the lower part of the post-peak range. A sustained move above USD 16,400 would be needed before the recovery could be considered established.

Key Levels to Watch

The nearest support zone sits near USD 15,400, followed by the area near USD 15,000, close to the mid-October low. Resistance sits near USD 16,000, followed by the area near USD 16,400, close to the October high. These are approximate levels rather than calculated pivots.

A hold above USD 15,400 would keep the recent range intact, while a slip below it would bring USD 15,000 into view. A sustained move through USD 16,000 would be needed before USD 16,400 becomes relevant.

Summary

Nickel rose 0.25% to USD 15,633.02 on 28 October 2026 as talk of Indonesian output cuts competed with softer ore prices and forecasts of a surplus. The Fed decision today and Indonesia's 15 November quota deadline are next, with support near USD 15,400 and resistance near USD 16,000 framing the near-term range.

Download Free Report – Explore 3 Stock Ideas & Industry Insights

Unlock 3 stock ideas and key industry insights in our free report. This information is general in nature and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial advice.

All investments involve risk—consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

View 3 Research Reports

Disclaimer:

This article (“Article”) has been prepared by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any information/advice provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine articles. You should obtain a copy of the Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice/information in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Article and on Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its articles (including this Article), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Article does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Article may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Article, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Some of the images/music that may be used in the Article are copyright to their respective owner(s). Kalkine does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used in the Article unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used in the Article are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated or was found to be necessary.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.