Natural Gas Edges 1.54% Higher to 3.1602 as Mild Weather Limits Heating Demand and Stocks Build

Aditi Sarkar

28 October 2026 06:37 PM AEDT

Natural Gas Edges 1.54% Higher to 3.1602 as Mild Weather Limits Heating Demand and Stocks Build

Image Source: Shutterstock

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Highlights

Natural gas traded at 3.1602, up 0.0480 (+1.54%), for the month.
The month opened at 3.1142 and reached a high of 3.5978.
Natural gas touched a monthly low of 3.0217 on tick volume of 367.55K.
Henry Hub next-day spot fell to USD 2.52 per MMBtu on 27 October, its lowest since November 2024.
US storage stood at 3,644 Bcf as of 16 October, 35 Bcf above the five-year average.
Traders are watching support near 3.0 and 2.5 and resistance near 3.5 and 4.0.

Natural gas edged 1.54% higher to 3.1602 as mild weather limited heating demand while storage and production stayed ample. The month opened at 3.1142 and has ranged between 3.0217 and 3.5978, adding 0.0480.

The gain comes as the front-month contract rose 2% on 27 October after five oversold sessions, even as Henry Hub spot fell to its lowest since November 2024.

Natural Gas Edges Higher Within a Wide Monthly Range

Natural gas opened the month at 3.1142, touched a high of 3.5978 and a low of 3.0217, leaving the latest price at 3.1602 on tick volume of 367.55K. On 27 October, the November NYMEX contract rose about 2% to USD 2.662 per MMBtu on its second-to-last day as front month, after being oversold for a fifth straight session, while December held near USD 3.02.

TradingView chart for Natural Gas

Image source: Tradingview chart, 28 October 2026

Spot Prices Slide as Weather Stays Mild

Henry Hub next-day spot fell to USD 2.52 per MMBtu, its lowest since November 2024. Meteorologists expect mostly milder-than-normal weather through 11 November, which limits heating demand, and NOAA favours above-normal temperatures for 1 to 5 November across the central and eastern United States.

Storage Remains Above Average

Lower 48 working gas stood at 3,644 Bcf as of 16 October after a 77 Bcf injection, 35 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average and 152 Bcf below a year earlier. Analysts expected a 68 Bcf injection for the week ended 23 October, which would lift inventories to 3,712 Bcf, about 0.7% above the five-year average.

Strong Output and LNG Feedgas

Lower 48 production averaged 112 Bcf per day in October so far, below the record of 113.3 Bcf per day set in August and September, and recovered to about 113.5 Bcf per day over the past week. Feedgas to the nine major US LNG export plants averaged 18.3 Bcf per day in October, up from 17.9 Bcf per day in September but below the April record of 18.8 Bcf per day.

Global Prices Surge While US Reaction Stays Muted

Global benchmarks are near 46-month highs, at about USD 31 per MMBtu at Dutch TTF and USD 32 at the Japan-Korea Marker. US prices have reacted little because the United States produces all the gas it consumes and LNG plants are running near capacity.

Technical Outlook: Natural Gas

Natural gas was quoted at 3.1602, against a monthly opening level of 3.1142, a monthly high of 3.5978 and a monthly low of 3.0217. The change stood at +0.0480, or +1.54%.

Natural gas peaked near 10 in 2022 and has since traded mostly between about 2.7 and 5.4, with a peak near 5.35 around the turn of the year. Prices are now in the lower part of that range. A sustained move above the monthly high near 3.5978 would be needed before the recovery could be considered extended.

Key Levels to Watch

The nearest support zone sits near 3.0, followed by the area near 2.5. Resistance sits near 3.5, close to the monthly high, followed by the area near 4.0. These are approximate levels rather than calculated pivots.

A hold above 3.0 would keep the recent range intact, while a slip below it would bring 2.5 into view. A sustained move through 3.5 would be needed before 4.0 becomes relevant.

Summary

Natural gas rose 1.54% to 3.1602 on the month as mild weather, above-average storage and ample production limited heating demand, while global gas prices stayed near 46-month highs. Thursday's storage report is next, with support near 3.0 and resistance near 3.5 framing the near-term range.

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