The Monetary Policy Board's account of its 29 September deliberations is due at 11.30 am AEDT on Tuesday, and it offers the first detailed look at how members weighed the case for a fourth rate rise this year.

A rate decision arrives as a short statement and a press conference. The reasoning behind it arrives two weeks later. On Tuesday 13 October, at 11.30 am AEDT, the Reserve Bank is scheduled to publish the minutes of the Monetary Policy Board's September meeting, the one at which it raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent.

The September statement already set out the headline reasons. Inflation remained elevated, some of the upside risks flagged in August were materialising, short-term inflation expectations were high and recent inflation outcomes had been stronger than expected. The decision was unanimous. What the statement cannot show is how members got there: which arguments carried the most weight, what alternatives were discussed, and what they were watching most closely as they looked ahead.

The August minutes, published on 25 August, give a sense of what to expect. They set out the options considered, described the risks members were alert to, referred to market pricing and updated the outlook for wages. With that template in mind, here are five questions the September record should help answer. None of the answers is known in advance, and this article does not attempt to guess them.

Questions one and two: the options and the turning point

The first question is simply what was on the table. In August, the minutes recorded two options: raise the cash rate by 25 basis points, or leave it unchanged "for the time being". Members chose to hold at 4.35 per cent, "remaining alert to the upside risks to the inflation outlook". The September minutes should show whether members again framed the choice as a rise versus a hold, and how they assessed the case for each.

The second question is what tipped the balance between August and September. The September statement listed several developments: a broader Middle East conflict and higher global energy prices, AI-related demand pushing up the prices of technology goods, capacity pressures in the economy, and firms raising or planning to raise prices. Governor Michele Bullock said at her media conference that "Inflation is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures." The minutes may indicate whether members saw any single factor as decisive, or whether it was the combination that shifted their view.

Questions three and four: expectations, wages and housing

The third question concerns inflation expectations and price-setting. The Board's statement described short-term inflation expectations as high, and Bullock said that "businesses in our liaison program continue to expect strong increases in their costs over the year ahead." In August, the minutes noted that the near-term wage forecast had been "slightly upgraded" because of recent wage decisions and agreements. Readers will be looking for how members now view the risk of high inflation becoming embedded, which the September statement said was the Board's focus. Bullock herself has pushed back on one version of that risk, saying: "I concur with his view that, no, this is not a wage price spiral."

The fourth question is how members are weighing the softer parts of the economy. The September statement acknowledged that output growth had slowed, consumer spending was easing gradually, housing prices had fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans had declined noticeably. It also described the effects of the housing downturn as uncertain. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent said in August that "Housing prices have declined in Sydney and Melbourne, with declines becoming increasingly broad-based." The minutes may show how much weight members placed on these signs of cooling, set against strong business investment and debt growth, and on Bullock's observation that much of the year's tightening is "still to flow through".

Question five: what the record says about the path ahead

The final question is the one markets will read most closely: how the minutes describe the outlook for policy. In August, the minutes said the Board "will continue to do what it considers necessary", and recorded market pricing that implied "around half a chance of a further 25 basis point increase by the end of 2026". The September statement went further, saying the Board would increase the cash rate further if needed and would remain attentive to the data.

Bullock was careful not to go beyond that at the press conference. "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down," she said, before adding: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance." The minutes may add colour on the conditions members are watching, but they are a record of a past meeting rather than a commitment about the next one.

It is also worth remembering the forecasting backdrop. The most recent published forecasts, from the August Statement on Monetary Policy, were prepared on a cash rate assumption of around 4.3 to 4.5 per cent, before the September hike. They had headline CPI inflation at 3.6 per cent and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3 per cent by December 2026. Since then, the September statement noted that recent inflation outcomes had been stronger than expected. For reference, headline inflation was 3.9 per cent over the year to the June quarter and the monthly CPI indicator showed 4.0 per cent for August, while the underlying trimmed mean was 3.6 per cent in the June quarter. Bullock put underlying inflation at "about 3.5 per cent", against a target midpoint of 2.5 per cent.

The bottom line

Minutes rarely change the facts of a decision, but they can change how it is understood. Tuesday's release should clarify which options the Board considered, which risks moved it from a hold to a hike, how it reads wages, expectations and the housing slowdown, and how it frames the path ahead.

The calendar after that is busy. The RBA Annual Report 2026 is due after 3.00 pm on 15 October, Kent is scheduled to appear on 18 and 19 October, the next CPI release is due on 28 October, and the Board's next decision will be announced at 2.30 pm on 3 November. Whatever the minutes reveal, the Board has made clear that the next move will depend on the data.