Key Highlights

  • The Board voted six to three to raise the cash rate to 4.85%.
  • Inflation remains well above target, while Unemployment and housing prices have weakened.
  • Markets had largely priced in the November increase before the meeting.
  • Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser linked Central Bank credibility to how well policy works.

The November cash rate rise was decided by a six-to-three majority, a split that says as much about the balance of evidence in front of the Board as it does about the decision itself.

When the Reserve Bank of Australia announced on 3 November 2026 that the cash rate target would rise to 4.85 per cent, one detail in Media Release 2026-30 stood out for close followers of monetary policy. The decision was taken by majority. Six members of the Monetary Policy Board voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points. Three members voted to leave it unchanged at 4.60 per cent.

A split vote does not change the outcome: the cash rate target is 4.85 per cent, effective 4 November 2026. But it does show that the members around the table weighed the same evidence and came to different views about what it required.

What the majority decided

The Board's published statement records the decision in plain terms: "At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent." The statement explained the judgement behind it, saying "the Board judged that a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted".

The reasoning centred on the Inflation outlook. "Inflation is now forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027," the statement said, and the Board "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

Governor Michele Bullock reinforced that message at her media conference the same day. "Returning inflation to target is our priority, and we will do what is necessary to achieve that," she said. She also stressed a concern about how inflation can become self-reinforcing: "It is critical that we stop expectations for high inflation from becoming embedded in price-setting decisions".

The evidence that could point either way

The November Statement on Monetary Policy contains material that leans in different directions.

On the side of tighter policy:

  • Headline inflation was 3.9 per cent over the year to the September quarter, and trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was 3.7 per cent. The separate monthly CPI indicator showed headline annual inflation of 4.3 per cent in the September month.
  • "Headline inflation is expected to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December 2026 quarter", according to the Statement's Outlook chapter.
  • "Headline and trimmed mean inflation are now expected to remain above 3 per cent until end-2027".
  • Business Credit growth remains very encouraging, according to the Financial Conditions chapter.

On the side of caution:

  • "The unemployment rate rose by more than expected to average 4.6 per cent in the September quarter."
  • Housing prices "have declined by more than expected".
  • GDP growth "has slowed this year to a little below its potential growth rate".
  • Financial conditions were already "judged to be restrictive, but with various cross-currents".

Both lists come from the same set of documents.

Why a committee, not a single decision-maker

Monetary policy in Australia is set by a Board rather than by the Governor alone. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, in his Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the Australian National University on 5 November, placed central bank arrangements in a global context: nine in 10 countries delegate monetary policy to operationally independent central banks.

Hauser's broader theme was trust. "Trust is central to all of our lives," he said. "But few rely on trust as profoundly as central banks." He argued that "trust isn't just a source of legitimacy – it's integral to how monetary policy actually works." He also noted: "Trust does not mean unconditional approval."

A recorded split can be read in that light. It shows the public that a range of views was considered, while the decision itself stands as the Board's collective position.

What to watch for next

The next official document from the November meeting is the minutes, scheduled for release at 11.30 am AEDT on 17 November 2026.

Board members will also be speaking publicly in the coming weeks. Renée Fry-McKibbin, a Monetary Policy Board member, is scheduled to appear at CAMA in Canberra on 20 November. A speech by fellow member Marnie Baker AM at the ARCA Credit Summit on the Gold Coast, set for 12 November, was cancelled; the RBA said "Unfortunately, unforeseen family circumstances prevent Marnie's attendance at this event."

The data calendar matters too. The monthly CPI indicator for October is due on 25 November, and the next cash rate decision is scheduled for 2.30 pm on 8 December 2026.

Markets had largely anticipated the rise. According to the Statement's Financial Conditions chapter, overnight indexed swap pricing before the meeting implied "market participants assign an 85 per cent probability to a cash rate increase in November". That high probability sits alongside a Board that was itself divided, a reminder that market pricing and committee deliberation are different things.

The bottom line

The six-to-three vote delivered a 25 basis point rise to 4.85 per cent, and that is the policy setting in force. The split shows the Board weighing inflation that remains well above target against a softening labour market, falling housing prices and growth below potential. The RBA's statement made its direction clear — "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target" — while the minutes on 17 November and the data that follow will shape how the next decision on 8 December is approached.