Henry Hub Natural Gas Price 2026: Down 16% This Year at US$3.10 While Europe's Gas Triples

Highlights

• Over the same period, European gas prices have more than tripled. The war with Iran has crippled Qatari
• The gap says more about American plumbing than American luck. Record output, healthy storage and export plants already
• Henry Hub is a pipeline junction in Louisiana and the delivery point for the NYMEX natural gas futures…

US natural gas is cheap in a year when gas almost everywhere else is dear. Henry Hub, the American benchmark, traded at US$3.0995 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 19 October. That is 15.9 per cent lower than at the start of the year.

Over the same period, European gas prices have more than tripled. The war with Iran has crippled Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Last week Reuters put Europe's TTF and Asia's JKM benchmarks both near US$29/MMBtu, roughly nine times the US price.

The gap says more about American plumbing than American luck. Record output, healthy storage and export plants already running near capacity have kept the US market largely sealed off from the crisis.

What Henry Hub measures

Henry Hub is a pipeline junction in Louisiana and the delivery point for the NYMEX natural gas futures contract. Its price sets the cost of heating, power and industrial fuel across North America. A growing share of global LNG contracts is also priced off it.

Why US gas fell while the world's rose

The year began with a spike. Winter Storm Fern sent Henry Hub futures to three-year highs in late January, with prices briefly holding above US$5/MMBtu.

Supply did the rest. Lower 48 output averaged a record 113.3 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd) in August and September, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

The war has barely touched US prices because the country produces all the gas it consumes. LNG plants were already running close to capacity, so higher prices abroad could not pull much more gas out.

Demand also disappointed. Solar generation rose 22 per cent over June to August, meeting most of the extra power demand from a record-hot July.

This month's rebound

The monthly gain of 9.3 per cent largely reflects supply disruption. Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall on 9 October, shut in almost 59 per cent of offshore Gulf of Mexico output at its peak. Pipeline problems pulled October output down to about 110.8 bcfd.

The rally then faded. The November contract fell about 4 per cent on 16 October to US$3.102, as mild weather delayed heating demand.

Storage and LNG exports

Inventories are comfortable rather than bloated. Working gas stood at 3,567 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week to 9 October, 1.3 per cent above the five-year average. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects stocks to end October near 3,850 Bcf, 2 per cent above normal.

LNG is the swing factor. US exports rose 23 per cent to 17.4 bcfd in the first half of 2026, the EIA says. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says exports are on track to exceed 120 million tonnes this year.

More capacity is coming. Venture Global is targeting 31 October for Phase 1 commercial operations at Plaquemines LNG. The first train at Golden Pass, owned by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, hit a record 0.7 bcfd last week.

The outlook

Forecasters expect a modest rise into winter, not a surge. The EIA's October outlook puts Henry Hub at US$3.30 in the fourth quarter and US$3.47 in the first quarter of 2027. It sees the 2027 average at US$3.16, as production climbs to 116.1 bcfd.

Enverus is similarly cautious. In September it cut its 2027 forecast to US$3.25 from US$3.50. It expects new supply to outpace extra LNG demand by about 1.3 bcfd by the end of 2027.

America's place in the global LNG market

The US is now the anchor of world LNG supply. It shipped 15.1 bcfd in 2025, about a quarter of global exports, according to the EIA. Qatar and Australia ranked second and third.

Australia is adding supply too. Woodside says its Scarborough project is on track for a first cargo in the fourth quarter. Its first-half net profit rose 27 per cent to US$1.67 billion.