Gold Slips 0.75% to USD 4,029.920 as Oil-Fuelled Inflation Fears Cloud Fed Outlook

Aditi Sarkar

28 October 2026 06:37 PM AEDT

Gold Slips 0.75% to USD 4,029.920 as Oil-Fuelled Inflation Fears Cloud Fed Outlook

Image Source: Shutterstock

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Highlights

Gold traded at USD 4,029.920, down 30.410 (-0.75%), during the session.
The session opened at USD 4,061.240 and reached a high of USD 4,070.840.
Gold touched a session low of USD 4,028.855 on tick volume of 110.54K.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to USD 4,045.29 earlier in the day, giving back part of a gain of about 1% in the prior session.
The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October, with about an 84% chance of a December hike priced in.
Traders are watching support near USD 4,000 and USD 3,900 and resistance near USD 4,100 and USD 4,200.

Gold slipped 0.75% to USD 4,029.920 on 28 October 2026 as an oil-driven jump in inflation fears lifted expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy ahead of today's decision. The session opened at USD 4,061.240 and ranged between USD 4,028.855 and USD 4,070.840, shedding 30.410.

The pullback follows a rally of about 1% in the previous session and leaves bullion testing the lower end of its recent range.

Gold Gives Back Part of Its Rebound

Gold opened at USD 4,061.240 and touched a high of USD 4,070.840 before sliding to USD 4,028.855, leaving the latest price at USD 4,029.920 on tick volume of 110.54K. Spot gold had earlier fallen 0.3% to USD 4,045.29 an ounce, trimming part of the previous session's gain of roughly 1%.

TradingView chart for Gold

Image source: Tradingview chart, 28 October 2026

Oil Spike Revives Fed Hike Fears

Crude rose after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, adding to inflation concerns. Higher oil lifts headline inflation, which raises rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar, and increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The Fed is expected to hold its target range at 3.75%-4.00% at 14:00 ET today, after a 25 basis point hike in September, with markets pricing about an 84% chance of another hike in December. PCE inflation data are due on 29 October.

Central Bank Buying Cools

Central bank purchases totalled 345 tonnes in the first half of 2026, the lowest since 2022. A World Gold Council survey nonetheless found that 89% of central banks expect global reserves to rise, and 45% plan to add to their own holdings.

Analysts Trim Near-Term Forecasts

A poll of analysts published on 27 October cut the 2026 average gold forecast to USD 4,495 from USD 4,509 and raised the 2027 average to USD 4,650 from USD 4,610. ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said gold is trading on rate expectations and energy-linked inflation risk, and that further falls are possible.

Technical Outlook: Gold

Gold was quoted at USD 4,029.920, against an opening level of USD 4,061.240, a session high of USD 4,070.840 and a session low of USD 4,028.855. The change on the day stood at -30.410, or -0.75%.

Gold peaked near USD 5,600 in late January 2026 and has posted lower highs since, with rallies in March, April, May and late August each topping out below the last. The slide from the August peak near USD 4,700 has carried prices to around USD 3,950 in recent sessions, close to the lows of June and July. A single session does not confirm a breakdown, and a sustained move higher would be needed before the pattern of lower highs is challenged.

Key Levels to Watch

The nearest support zone sits near USD 4,000, followed by the area near USD 3,900, just under the June and July lows. Resistance sits near USD 4,100, followed by the area near USD 4,200. These are approximate levels rather than calculated pivots.

A hold above USD 4,000 would keep the recent range intact, while a break below it would bring USD 3,900 into view. A sustained move through USD 4,100 would be needed before USD 4,200 becomes relevant.

Summary

Gold fell 0.75% to USD 4,029.920 on 28 October 2026 as oil-driven inflation fears and rate expectations weighed on bullion, while softer central bank buying and trimmed analyst forecasts added to caution. The Fed decision today and 29 October PCE data are next, with support near USD 4,000 and resistance near USD 4,100 framing the near-term range.

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