Key Highlights

  • Seven Monetary Policy Board meetings were held in 2026, with five quarter-point rises.
  • The cumulative increase is 125 basis points, taking the target to 4.85 per cent.
  • Two meetings resulted in pauses rather than changes to the cash rate.
  • Decision dates and effective dates differ, which matters when reading the calendar.

Read the RBA's cash rate history for 2026 and a pattern stands out. The Monetary Policy Board met seven times between February and November. On five of those occasions it lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points. On two, in the middle of the year, it left the rate alone.

The result is a cumulative increase of 125 basis points, taking the target to 4.85 per cent from 4 November 2026. The final meeting of the year is scheduled for 8 December.

Decision day versus effective day

The Board announces its decisions at 2.30 pm on the day of each meeting. The new target then takes effect from the following day. That is why the RBA's history lists effective dates that are one day after the meeting dates.

Here is how the 2026 sequence lines up:

  • 3 February meeting: rate raised to 3.85 per cent, effective 4 February.
  • 17 March meeting: raised to 4.10 per cent, effective 18 March.
  • 5 May meeting: raised to 4.35 per cent, effective 6 May.
  • 16 June meeting: no change.
  • 11 August meeting: no change.
  • 29 September meeting: raised to 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September.
  • 3 November meeting: raised to 4.85 per cent, effective 4 November.

The starting point for the year was 3.60 per cent, the level reached after the third of three cuts in 2025, on 13 August of that year.

Three rises, a pause, then two more

The year began with a rapid sequence. The first three meetings of 2026, in February, March and May, each delivered a rise. By 6 May the target was back at 4.35 per cent, the same level it had been before the RBA started cutting in February 2025.

In effect, the first third of 2026 unwound all of the 2025 easing.

The June and August meetings produced no change. The cash rate sat at 4.35 per cent from 6 May until the end of September, a period of almost five months without a move.

What can be said is that August was also the month of the previous Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), whose forecasts serve as the comparison point for the November figures.

That comparison is telling. In August, the RBA forecast headline CPI Inflation of 3.6 per cent for the December quarter of 2026. In November it forecast 4.5 per cent. For trimmed mean (underlying) inflation, the December 2026 forecast moved from 3.3 per cent to 3.6 per cent. The November SMP described the inflation outlook as "revised materially higher", with higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict adding to pressures.

The Board resumed raising rates at its 29 September meeting, lifting the target to 4.60 per cent, and followed with another rise on 3 November.

The November decision was by majority. Six members voted to increase the rate and three voted to keep it at 4.60 per cent. The statement gives no reasons for the minority position.

For the majority, the statement explained: "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded." It also said "a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support the return of inflation to target."

The inflation data available by early November help explain the timing. Headline CPI rose 4.3 per cent over the year to September 2026 on the monthly measure. On the quarterly measure, headline CPI was 3.9 per cent over the year to the September quarter. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred underlying gauge, rose 1.0 per cent in the September quarter, up from 0.8 per cent in the June quarter, for a year-ended rate of 3.7 per cent.

The Board's statement summed it up: "Since the previous meeting, the data have confirmed that underlying inflation remains broadly based."

How the year looks in hindsight

Five rises of 25 basis points each make 125 basis points. Stacked against the 75 basis points of cuts in 2025, the net result is a cash rate 50 basis points higher than the 4.35 per cent that prevailed before the first 2025 cut.

The Board has acknowledged that the cumulative effect is being felt. Its statement said: "The increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year have tightened financial conditions." The November SMP adds that the Board judges financial conditions to be restrictive, though the extent is uncertain, and that government bond yields are at multi-year highs.

There are signs of the economy responding. The statement noted "The economy is slowing." The SMP records that housing prices have fallen about 5 per cent from their March peak.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment rate reached 4.7 per cent in September 2026, and the statement said it "is projected to rise by more than expected in the August forecasts."

One meeting left

The calendar has one more entry for 2026: the 8 December meeting, with a decision due at 2.30 pm. Before then, the next CPI release is scheduled for 25 November.

The RBA's forecasts assume a cash rate path based on market pricing as at 28 October 2026. That pricing implied the cash rate rising about 35 basis points by mid-2027, then stabilising at 4.8 per cent in 2028. This is market pricing, not an RBA commitment. The Board's own guidance is that it "will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions."

For borrowers, it is worth remembering that the dates in this calendar refer to the RBA's policy target. Lenders set their own rates and make their own decisions about timing.

The bottom line

The 2026 calendar reads as two bursts of tightening separated by a pause: three rises from February to May, two holds in June and August, and two more rises in September and November. Together they took the cash rate from 3.60 per cent to 4.85 per cent. The resumption followed a material upgrade to the RBA's inflation forecasts and data showing underlying inflation remained broadly based. Whether December adds a sixth entry will depend, in the Board's words, on the data and the evolving outlook.