Key Highlights

  • September CPI is scheduled for 28 October, following August’s headline reading of 4.0%.
  • The Financial Aggregates on 30 October will update a credit picture split between falling housing loans and growing business debt.
  • The Board has offered no guidance on its 3 November decision, which will be known at 2.30 pm that day.

Two scheduled data releases in the last week of October, September CPI and the RBA's Financial Aggregates, land just days before the Monetary Policy Board's next cash rate decision on 3 November.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's calendar for the rest of October is unusually crowded. Between now and the next cash rate announcement at 2.30 pm on 3 November 2026, the RBA will publish its Annual Report, release papers from a policy conference, field several speaking engagements from senior staff and, crucially, see two pieces of data that bear directly on the questions its Board has been asking.

The first is the September CPI, due on 28 October. The second is the RBA's own Financial Aggregates release, scheduled for 11.30 am on 30 October, although the RBA notes it may be delayed. Neither guarantees any particular decision, and Governor Michele Bullock has been explicit that she will not pre-commit: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance."

The cash rate target sits at 4.60%, effective 30 September 2026, after a unanimous 25 basis point increase on 29 September. That was the fourth rise of 2026. The Board's statement said "Inflation remains elevated" and that "some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising."

The minutes of the 28–29 September meeting, published on 13 October, show the Board weighed a 25 basis point increase against holding. Arguments for holding centred on downside risks to activity, which members judged modest, and in the end "all members judged that it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points". The strategy is to return inflation to target "in a timely manner", with the Board prepared to consider "increasing the cash rate target further if required."

Market pricing at the time of the September meeting, as recorded in the minutes, implied about 15 basis points more by year-end and a further 30 basis points in the first half of 2027. That was a snapshot of expectations, not a forecast by the RBA.

28 October: the inflation read

The September CPI release follows a headline annual reading of 4.0% for August 2026 on the monthly measure. It is worth separating that from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying gauge, was 3.6% over the year to the June quarter 2026 and 0.8% in that quarter alone on a seasonally adjusted basis. Bullock said underlying inflation had been "about 3.5 per cent for the past six months", or "a percentage point above our target".

The September minutes flagged that July's monthly CPI was stronger than expected, particularly in market services, and that domestic petrol and diesel prices were 13% higher than forecast in August. Staff judged the underlying inflation surprise more likely reflected domestic capacity pressures than Middle East cost pass-through. Members concluded that "inflation remained too high."

Bullock gave a sense of the benchmark she is looking for. About 0.6% quarterly inflation is consistent with roughly 2.5% a year, she said, compared with recent readings of 0.8 and 1. The RBA targets 2–3%, aiming for the 2.5% midpoint.

For context, the August Statement on Monetary Policy forecast headline CPI of 3.6% and trimmed mean inflation of 3.3% for the year to December 2026. Those forecasts were finalised on 5 August, before the September rate rise.

30 October: the credit picture

The Financial Aggregates release offers a read on lending and credit, two areas that featured prominently in the Board's September deliberations, and pulled in different directions.

On the household side, the statement noted that "new housing loans have declined noticeably", and the minutes said new housing loan commitments fell sharply, led by investors. Established housing prices fell faster than expected, with the minutes noting "the cumulative fall in housing prices is likely to be greater than had been assumed." The statement also observed that "housing prices have fallen in most capital cities".

On the business side, the message was the opposite. The statement said "growth in business investment and debt is strong". The minutes recorded that June quarter GDP was a little stronger than expected, led by private business investment, which was up more than 10% over the year.

That split is part of why credit data matter. Cooling household borrowing points to tighter conditions biting, while strong business debt growth suggests demand in parts of the economy remains firm. The minutes described financial conditions as having "remained somewhat restrictive", while noting the extent was uncertain.

The rest of the fortnight

The data releases are not the only scheduled events. The RBA's calendar lists:

  • 15 October, after 3.00 pm AEDT: RBA Annual Report 2026.
  • 16 October, 11.30 am AEDT: overview and draft papers from the RBA's 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs.
  • 18 October, 11.00 am AEDT: Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent, interview on News 24 with Ross Greenwood.
  • 19 October, 10.05 am AEDT: Kent, fireside chat at the Commonwealth Bank's Global Markets Conference, Sydney.
  • 20 October, 9.50 am AEDT: Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy Department, fireside chat at the AFIA conference, Sydney.

Kent's two appearances may attract attention given his role. In an August fireside chat he said "monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive" and that "the three cash rate increases earlier this year are having their intended effects". He also cautioned: "It takes some time for tighter monetary policy to have its full effect on economic activity and inflation." Bullock has put that lag at 12 to 18 months for the full effect.

Other threads the Board is watching

Labour market data remain part of the mix, though with a caveat. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in August alongside higher participation, and the minutes warned that "considerable caution is warranted when interpreting the current official labour force data." Bullock nonetheless said "the unemployment rate is still quite low historically, and we still think the labour market is a little bit tight."

Global energy is another. Bullock warned that "Disruptions to oil supply could last longer than anticipated", and the statement identified higher fuel costs spreading to other goods and services among the upside risks.

The bottom line

The fortnight before 3 November brings two scheduled releases that speak directly to the Board's main concerns: September CPI on 28 October, which will add to the inflation picture after August's 4.0% headline reading, and the Financial Aggregates on 30 October, which will update a credit picture split between falling housing loans and strong business debt. The Board has said it will do what it considers necessary to return inflation to target, but has offered no guidance on what it will decide. The outcome will be known at 2.30 pm on 3 November.