A single sentence in the 3 November statement – "The Board is conscious of the period in which Inflation has been too high" – signals that the length of the inflation episode, not just its level, is now shaping policy.

Most of a Monetary Policy statement deals in numbers: the cash rate, the inflation rate, the forecasts. Every so often, though, a sentence reveals something about the Board's state of mind. On 3 November 2026, as it lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the Monetary Policy Board wrote: "The Board is conscious of the period in which inflation has been too high."

It is an understated line, but its meaning is plain. Inflation has been above target for a long time, and the Board is signalling it is running out of patience.

Reading the sentence

The statement does not specify how long it regards that period as being, and this article does not put a figure on it. What the record shows is the shape of the episode. Inflation peaked at 7.9% at the end of 2022. It has since come down, but not back to the 2–3% target, where the RBA aims for the midpoint.

Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter emphasised the progress in an interview aired on 25 October: "We have actually brought inflation down over the last few years." She added: "We've managed to do that and not see a really big increase in the Unemployment rate."

The "conscious of the period" line suggests the Board sees the other side of that achievement. Progress has stalled, and the latest figures have moved the wrong way:

  • Monthly headline CPI: 3.5% in the year to July 2026, 4.0% in August, 4.3% in September.
  • Trimmed mean (underlying): 3.7% over the year to the September quarter, 1.0% in the quarter.

These measures are not interchangeable. Headline CPI captures all price changes, including volatile ones such as fuel, while the trimmed mean is the RBA's gauge of the underlying trend. But both sit above target.

A target that keeps moving away

The impatience is easier to understand alongside the forecasts. In its August Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA projected inflation returning to the target midpoint in late 2027, as Governor Michele Bullock reminded a Senate committee on 28 October.

The November SMP has pushed that out. Inflation is now forecast to remain above 3% over the coming year and not to reach the top of the 2–3% range until late 2027 – about three quarters later than previously forecast. The decision statement says: "Inflation is now forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027".

The forecast table, compared with August:

  • December 2026: headline 4.5% (August: 3.6%), trimmed mean 3.6% (3.3%)
  • June 2027: headline 3.7% (2.8%), trimmed mean 3.5% (3.0%)
  • December 2027: headline 2.7% (2.6%), trimmed mean 2.9% (2.6%)

Those are forecasts, built on assumptions including a market-based cash rate path and energy prices that decline from elevated levels. The SMP cautions that energy prices could stay high or rise if shipping and refining disruptions persist.

Bullock had prepared the ground: "Inflation will therefore likely be higher than was our base case in August." And: "inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time."

Why duration matters

A long period of high inflation carries a particular danger, which the statement names directly: "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded."

The longer people live with prices rising faster than the target, the more likely they are to plan around it. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted on 21 October that a rising share of firms see 3–3.5% inflation as the "new normal". He said: "We can't allow expectations to shift away from the target."

Hunter made a similar point in plainer terms: "We don't want to live with high inflation for a long time."

That is the logic behind the "conscious of the period" sentence. It suggests the Board sees time itself as a risk Factor – the longer the episode runs, the higher the cost of ending it later.

Impatience, but not unanimity

If the sentence reflects impatience, it is not impatience shared equally across the Board. Six members voted to raise the cash rate; three voted to hold at 4.60%. In September, the decision to raise from 4.35% to 4.60% had been unanimous. The RBA has not said who voted which way.

The statement itself explains why holding had support. "The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen," it says, and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.7% by December 2026 and 5.1% by December 2028. Hunter had stressed: "We're not trying to achieve a sharp stop or a really big downturn or anything like that."

The statement ends with a commitment that leaves Options open: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target." It echoes September's language, when the Board said it would do what was necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed."

The bottom line

"Conscious of the period in which inflation has been too high" is the Board's way of saying that the duration of the inflation episode is now weighing on its decisions. With forecasts showing inflation above 3% through much of 2027 and a growing risk to expectations, a majority judged it could not keep waiting – though three members disagreed. The next monthly CPI update on 25 November and the 8 December decision will test that resolve. Readers wondering what this means for their own position can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.