Chart Pack Out, Speeches Ahead: The RBA's Post-Hike Fortnight at a Glance

Sonal Goyal

04 November 2026 05:13 PM AEDT

Chart Pack Out, Speeches Ahead: The RBA's Post-Hike Fortnight at a Glance

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Key Highlights

The RBA publishes its Chart Pack on 4 November at 11.30 am AEDT.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivers the Melville Lecture on 5 November.
Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Sydney conference on 9 November.
The next CPI release is on 25 November and the next Board decision on 8 December.

Wednesday 4 November is the day the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest decision takes effect. The cash rate target is now 4.85 per cent, up 25 basis points from 4.60 per cent, after the Monetary Policy Board's announcement at 2.30 pm AEDT on Tuesday. It is the fifth 25-basis-point rise this year, taking the total increase in 2026 to 125 basis points.

The decision is only the start of a run of scheduled RBA events. Here is what is on the calendar, what is already known, and where the information gaps are.

Day by day: the schedule

According to the RBA's homepage and the Board's statement, the coming weeks look like this:

Tuesday 3 November, 2.30 pm AEDT: Monetary Policy Board decision, with the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) released the same day. The Governor's media conference followed at 3.30 pm AEDT.
Wednesday 4 November: new cash rate target of 4.85 per cent takes effect. Chart Pack released at 11.30 am AEDT.
Thursday 5 November, 5.45 pm AEDT: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the Australian National University in Canberra.
Monday 9 November, 9.30 am AEDT: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), speaks at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney.
Wednesday 25 November: next CPI release.
Tuesday 8 December, 2.30 pm: next Monetary Policy Board decision.

Two caveats apply. The content of the Hauser and Hunter appearances has not been published, and this article does not predict what either will say. And a transcript of the Governor's 3 November media conference is not available so nothing is reported here about it.

What the decision and forecasts already tell us

The Board's statement and the SMP set the backdrop for every event that follows.

The vote was split: six members voted to increase the cash rate, and three voted to leave it at 4.60 per cent. The statement gives no reasons for the minority view. The majority's reasoning was that "there is an increasing risk that higher Inflation expectations will become embedded." and "a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support the return of inflation to target."

The latest inflation readings, as set out in the SMP's economic conditions chapter, need careful labelling:

Headline CPI, September quarter: 3.9 per cent year-ended.
Trimmed-mean (underlying) inflation, September quarter: 1.0 per cent in the quarter, up from 0.8 per cent, and 3.7 per cent year-ended.
Monthly headline CPI, September 2026: 4.3 per cent year-ended.

The RBA forecasts headline inflation to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December quarter 2026, with headline and underlying inflation above 3 per cent until end-2027. It forecasts inflation reaching the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range in mid-2028.

Those forecasts assume a cash rate path based on market pricing as at 28 October 2026, which implies about 35 basis points of further increases by mid-2027 before stabilising at 4.8 per cent in 2028. That path reflects market pricing, not an RBA commitment.

On the labour market, the Unemployment rate was 4.7 per cent in September 2026. The RBA forecasts unemployment rising to 5.1 per cent by end-2028.

Other data released around the decision

The decision did not arrive in isolation. Several RBA statistical releases landed in the days around it:

Financial Aggregates, September 2026 (released 30 October): total Credit grew 0.6 per cent in the month and 8.4 per cent over the year. Housing credit rose 0.4 per cent (7.0 per cent over the year) and Business credit 0.9 per cent (11.3 per cent over the year).
Index of Commodity Prices, October 2026 (preliminary): down 1.3 per cent in SDR terms in October, but up 12.5 per cent over the year in SDR terms.
Markets, 4.00 pm on 2 November: the Australian dollar at US$0.7023 and the trade-weighted index at 65.1, according to the RBA's homepage.

On the card payments front, 30 October was also the date card networks and large acquirers began publishing specified card payment fee information, under the timetable in the RBA's card surcharges FAQ.

The fortnight before, for context

The current run of events follows a busy stretch of RBA communication in late October:

22 October: Research Discussion Paper 2026-06, "Perceived Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence From Professional Forecasters in Australia".
23 October: Governor Michele Bullock's speech "Purpose, Perspective and Possibility" at the University of New England.
25 October: Sarah Hunter's 60 Minutes interview was broadcast.
26 October: Brad Jones appeared on a panel at the super and Wealth industry summit.
28 October: Governor Bullock's opening statement to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee.

In that Senate statement, the Governor said: "Recently, inflation has been around 3½ to 4 per cent in year-ended terms." and "High inflation hurts everyone." She added that it "means higher grocery costs, higher rent, and higher electricity bills."

Taken together, the before-and-after calendar means the RBA has a heavy schedule of public communication on either side of the decision. The Board's own guidance is that it "will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions." The 25 November CPI release is the most significant scheduled data point before the 8 December meeting.

The bottom line

The RBA's post-hike fortnight starts with the new 4.85 per cent cash rate taking effect and the Chart Pack release on 4 November, followed by Andrew Hauser's Sir Leslie Melville Lecture on 5 November and Sarah Hunter's UBS conference appearance on 9 November. Neither speech's content is known in advance.

Beyond that, the key dates are the CPI release on 25 November and the Board's next decision on 8 December. The backdrop is a split 6–3 vote, September quarter trimmed-mean inflation of 3.7 per cent year-ended, and RBA forecasts showing headline inflation peaking at 4.5 per cent this quarter. The Board says it will be "attentive to the data", and the next month is when much of that data arrives.

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