Key Highlights

  • The Annual Report 2026 is scheduled for release after 3.00 pm AEDT on 15 October.
  • The overview and draft papers from the 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs are scheduled for 11.30 am AEDT on 16 October.
  • They open a fortnight that includes two Kent appearances, a payments-policy fireside chat, September CPI on 28 October and the cash rate decision on 3 November.

The Reserve Bank is scheduled to release its Annual Report 2026 on Thursday afternoon and the overview and draft papers from its 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs on Friday morning, opening a fortnight of scheduled appearances and data before the 3 November rate decision.

Back-to-back publications are scheduled for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week. According to the "Coming Up" section of the RBA's homepage, the RBA Annual Report 2026 is due after 3.00 pm AEDT on Thursday 15 October. At 11.30 am AEDT the following day, Friday 16 October, the RBA is scheduled to publish the overview and draft papers from its 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs.

Neither release has been published at the time of writing, and this article does not anticipate their contents. What follows sets out what is scheduled, and the policy backdrop against which both documents will arrive.

Thursday: the Annual Report

The Annual Report 2026 is scheduled for release after 3.00 pm AEDT on 15 October. It lands at the end of an eventful stretch for the central bank.

On the monetary policy side, the cash rate target has been raised four times in 2026. Three increases came earlier in the year, between February and May, according to Governor Michele Bullock, and the Monetary Policy Board raised the target by a further 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent on 29 September, effective 30 September. Of that September move, Bullock said: "This is one more."

On the payments side, card surcharges were removed on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa from 1 October 2026, and lower domestic interchange caps took effect. The Payments System Board welcomed the account-to-account Payments Vision in August while flagging unresolved issues, including the future of the Bulk Electronic Clearing System.

In financial system oversight, the RBA assessed ASX's clearing and settlement facilities in September, with Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones saying: "ASX is still not meeting the RBA's expectations in several important areas." The October Financial Stability Review, released on 1 October, found the system has "a good degree of resilience" while global and operational vulnerabilities are growing.

The RBA has also set out the theme for a new $5 note, Connection to Country, with no portrait and no timeline yet given.

Which of these developments fall within the Annual Report's reporting period, and how it treats them, will be clear only once it is released.

Friday: papers on monetary policy trade-offs

The second release, scheduled for 11.30 am AEDT on 16 October, comprises the overview and draft papers from the RBA's 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs. The papers' authors and findings have not been released, and draft papers by their nature may be revised.

The subject is timely. The Monetary Policy Board's own deliberations in September offer a clear example of a trade-off at work. According to the minutes of the 28–29 September meeting, the Board weighed a 25 basis point increase against holding the cash rate steady. Arguments for holding centred on downside risks to activity, which members judged modest. In the end, "all members judged that it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points".

Bullock's media conference on 29 September underlined the other side of the ledger. "Now, I know this decision is difficult for households with a mortgage and businesses with loans," she said, adding: "Today's increase in interest rates is needed to slow the economy and return inflation to target."

The labour market sits at the centre of that balance. Unemployment rose to 4.6 per cent in August, alongside higher participation. Bullock noted it had risen from 3.5 per cent over the past couple of years while over a million jobs were created, and that "a rise in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean job losses." She also said "the unemployment rate is still quite low historically, and we still think the labour market is a little bit tight."

On the inflation side, headline CPI was 4.0 per cent over the year to August 2026 on the monthly measure, while trimmed mean inflation, an underlying measure, was 3.6 per cent over the year to the June quarter. Bullock said underlying inflation had been "about 3.5 per cent for the past six months", "a percentage point above our target". The RBA's target is 2–3 per cent, aiming for the 2.5 per cent midpoint.

Timing adds another layer. Bullock said the full effect of interest rates takes 12 to 18 months, and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent observed in August that "It takes some time for tighter monetary policy to have its full effect on economic activity and inflation."

Whether, and how, the conference papers address any of these themes will be apparent only when they are published.

The rest of the run to 3 November

The two releases open a crowded schedule. According to the RBA's "Coming Up" listing and schedule of events:

  • 18 October, 11.00 am AEDT: Christopher Kent, interview on News 24 with Ross Greenwood.
  • 19 October, 10.05 am AEDT: Christopher Kent, fireside chat at the Commonwealth Bank's Global Markets Conference, Sydney.
  • 20 October, 9.50 am AEDT: Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy Department, fireside chat at the AFIA conference, Sydney.
  • 28 October: September CPI.
  • 30 October, 11.30 am: Financial Aggregates (may be delayed).
  • 3 November, 2.30 pm: next cash rate decision.

The Board has given no commitment about that decision. Bullock said in September: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance." The Board's strategy, as recorded in the minutes, is to return inflation to target "in a timely manner", and it will consider "increasing the cash rate target further if required."

The bottom line

The RBA is scheduled to publish its Annual Report 2026 after 3.00 pm AEDT on 15 October and the overview and draft papers from its 2026 conference on monetary policy trade-offs at 11.30 am AEDT on 16 October. Both arrive after four rate rises in 2026, the removal of card surcharges and a mixed assessment of ASX. They open a fortnight that includes two Kent appearances, a payments-policy fireside chat, September CPI on 28 October and the cash rate decision scheduled for 3 November, on which the Board has offered no forward guidance.

The releases listed in this article were scheduled future events as of 14 October 2026; their content should not be described as already published.