Aluminum Firms 1.01% to 3.28K as Thin LME Stocks Offset Gulf Smelter Restarts

Aditi Sarkar

28 October 2026 06:37 PM AEDT

Aluminum Firms 1.01% to 3.28K as Thin LME Stocks Offset Gulf Smelter Restarts

Image Source: Shutterstock

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Highlights

Aluminum traded at 3.28K, up 32.93 (+1.01%), on the IMF's global benchmark.
LME cash aluminium settled at USD 3,043 per tonne on 23 October, about 21% below its early-June peak near USD 3,855.
EGA had restarted 631 of 1,262 cells at its Al Taweelah smelter by 21 October, with full output targeted for the first quarter of 2027.
LME registered stocks stood at about 238,625 tonnes, the lowest this century.
China's September exports of unwrought aluminium and semis rose 25.9% year on year to 656,000 tonnes.
Traders are watching support near 3.2K and 3.1K and resistance near 3.4K and 3.6K.

Aluminum rose 1.01% to 3.28K on the IMF's global benchmark on 28 October 2026, a gain of 32.93, as thin warehouse stocks offered support while recovering Gulf production and rising Chinese exports kept a lid on the rally.

The metal remains well below its mid-2026 peak, with supply headlines and the Federal Reserve's decision both in focus.

Thin Stocks Support Aluminum

Aluminum gained 32.93 to 3.28K, or 1.01%. LME registered stocks stood at about 238,625 tonnes, the lowest this century, a thin buffer that keeps the market sensitive to supply disruption. LME aluminium slipped 0.2% on Monday, while LME cash aluminium settled at USD 3,043 per tonne on 23 October.

TradingView chart for Aluminum

Image source: Tradingview chart, 28 October 2026

Gulf Restarts Drain the Supply Premium

Iranian attacks on Abu Dhabi's Khalifa Economic Zone on 28 March forced an emergency shutdown of EGA's Al Taweelah smelter. EGA restarted its first cell on 26 May and had restarted 631 of 1,262 cells, about 50%, by 21 October, targeting full output in the first quarter of 2027.

GCC production was 299,000 tonnes, down 43% year on year. LME aluminium reached about USD 3,855 per tonne in early June before falling about 21% as restarts eased scarcity.

China Exports Add to Supply

China keeps a 30% export duty on primary unwrought aluminium, but exports are rising through alloys and semi-fabricated products. September exports of unwrought aluminium and semis were 656,000 tonnes, up 25.9% year on year, and January to September exports totalled 5.32 million tonnes, up 17.8%. Alloy exports for January to August were 349,000 tonnes, about double the prior year.

Fed Decision and Dollar Frame Sentiment

The Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday at 14:00 ET, with the target range at 3.75%-4.00% after a hike on 16 September. The dollar index stood at 101.69 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.146% in late-October data. A firmer dollar can weigh on dollar-priced metals. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation are due on 29 October.

Technical Outlook: Aluminum

Aluminum was quoted at 3.28K, with a change on the day of +32.93, or +1.01%.

Aluminum peaked near 3.66K in mid-2026, above the 2022 high near 3.5K, before pulling back toward 3.17K. The latest gain recovers part of that decline, but prices remain well below the peak. A sustained move higher would be needed before the recovery could be considered established.

Key Levels to Watch

The nearest support zone sits near 3.2K, followed by the area near 3.1K. Resistance sits near 3.4K, followed by the area near 3.6K, close to the mid-2026 peak. These are approximate levels rather than calculated pivots.

A hold above 3.2K would keep the rebound intact, while a slip below it would bring 3.1K into view. A sustained move through 3.4K would be needed before 3.6K becomes relevant.

Summary

Aluminum rose 1.01% to 3.28K on 28 October 2026 as thin LME stocks offered support, while Gulf smelter restarts and rising Chinese exports limited gains. The Fed decision today and 29 October data are next, while support near 3.2K and resistance near 3.4K frame the near-term range.

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