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Only two Monetary Policy Board decisions remain in 2026, on 3 November and 8 December, and the weeks between them are packed with data, forecasts and speeches that will shape how each is received.

With the cash rate target now at 4.60 per cent after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) fourth increase of the year, attention is turning to the calendar. As of Monday 5 October, the Board has two scheduled decisions left in 2026. The first comes on Tuesday 3 November. The second, and final, comes on Tuesday 8 December.

What happens at those meetings is for the Board to decide, and this article does not attempt to predict the outcome. Instead, it sets out what is scheduled, when, and why each date matters.

The two remaining decision days

3 November. The Board meets on 2 and 3 November, with its decision announced at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November. This meeting carries extra weight because the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) will be released at the same time. That document will contain the RBA's updated forecasts, replacing those published in August. A media conference follows at 3.30 pm.

8 December. The final meeting of 2026 runs over 7 and 8 December, with the decision due at 2.30 pm AEDT on 8 December.

The headline of this article describes 8 December as one last shot, but that is a description of the calendar, not of the Board's intentions. The Board's own position, from its 29 September statement, is that it "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed." That language covers every meeting, not any one in particular.

Why November comes with more information

The November meeting stands out because it pairs a decision with a full set of new forecasts. The August SMP assumed "less than one full cash rate increase by the end of 2026, before a small reduction in the cash rate further out". The Board has since delivered a full 25 basis point rise.

The September statement also said that "global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts", and that recent data suggest growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected. The November SMP will show how those developments have changed the RBA's outlook.

For reference, the August forecasts expected trimmed mean inflation to "remain above 3 per cent until mid-2027, before easing to 2.5 per cent by early 2028", unemployment to "increase to 4.8 per cent by the end of 2028", and GDP growth of 1.4 per cent over the year to December 2026.

What fills the gaps

Between now and 8 December, the RBA calendar is busy. Key dates include:

  • 13 October, 11.30 am AEDT: minutes of the September meeting.
  • 15 October, after 3.00 pm AEDT: the RBA Annual Report 2026.
  • 18 October: Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent is interviewed on News 24 with Ross Greenwood.
  • 19 October: Mr Kent takes part in a fireside chat at the Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney.
  • 20 October: Head of Payments Policy Ellis Connolly in a fireside chat at the AFIA conference in Sydney.
  • 21 October: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at Citi's Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.
  • 26 October: Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones on a panel at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit in Melbourne.
  • 28 October: the next CPI update.
  • 3 November, 2.30 pm AEDT: decision and November SMP.
  • 5 November: Mr Hauser delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the ANU.
  • 9 November: Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter at the UBS Australasia Conference.
  • 17 November: minutes of the November meeting.
  • 19 November: Payments System Board meeting.
  • 7–8 December: final Monetary Policy Board meeting of the year, with the decision at 2.30 pm AEDT on 8 December.

Of these, the 28 October CPI release stands out on timing alone, landing six days before the November decision and providing the most recent inflation reading before the Board meets. The August monthly CPI indicator showed headline inflation of 4.0 per cent. Underlying inflation is lower, at about 3.5 per cent over the past six months according to Governor Michele Bullock.

Reading the calendar without over-reading it

Deputy Governor Hauser offered a useful caution on ABC 7.30 on 8 September about trying to call the Board's decisions. "There's nine people voting on it. So you'd be mad to take my advice," he said.

The same applies to the calendar. Having two meetings left does not mean the Board must act at either; equally, the Board has said it is prepared to raise rates further if needed. Ms Bullock said at the 29 September media conference: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down." Asked about recession, she said: "That is not our central base case at this moment."

She also stressed the longer-term nature of policy, noting that "it can take 12, perhaps even 18 months" for the full effect of rate changes. On that timeline, the full effects of decisions made in late 2026 would continue to come through well into 2027.

For households and businesses, the practical value of the calendar is in knowing when new information arrives. Borrowers may wish to note the dates on which the Board announces its decisions and check their loan terms for how any change would flow through.

The bottom line

The RBA has two decision days left in 2026: 3 November, which comes with fresh forecasts in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, and 8 December, which closes the year. In between sit the September minutes, the Annual Report, the 28 October CPI update and a series of speeches by senior officials. The Board has said it will do what it considers necessary to return inflation to target, including raising rates further if needed. What it actually decides at each meeting will depend on the information in front of it.