November brings both a cash rate decision and the RBA's next Statement on Monetary Policy, so households and markets will get a rate call and an updated read on the economy in the same month.

Mark 3 November in the diary. At 2.30 pm that day, the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board is due to announce its next cash rate decision, five weeks after it lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent.

But the November meeting is about more than one number. The RBA's published calendar for November lists a cluster of events: the Monetary Policy Board meeting, a decision statement, a media conference, a Statement on Monetary Policy, a Chart Pack and the minutes of the November meeting. The same calendar also lists a Payments System Board meeting and a Bulletin during the month.

That combination gives November its extra weight. A decision statement says what the Board did and, briefly, why. A Statement on Monetary Policy sets out how RBA staff see growth, jobs and inflation unfolding, and the assumptions behind those projections. Together, the rate call can be read against a freshly updated picture of the economy.

Why the August outlook already looks dated

The most recent full set of forecasts appeared in the August 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy, which was finalised on 5 August. A good deal has changed since then.

According to the minutes of the September meeting, published on 13 October, the August forecasts had required several favourable developments that no longer appeared likely to all occur. The minutes also record a run of developments that moved the picture:

  • July inflation data were stronger than expected, particularly for market services.
  • Domestic petrol and diesel prices were 13 per cent higher than had been forecast in August.
  • The Middle East conflict broadened, and global energy prices were significantly above the August assumptions.
  • Housing prices fell by more than expected, and staff judged that the cumulative fall was likely to be greater than assumed in August.
  • Staff expected underlying inflation in the September quarter to be higher than forecast in August.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in August, alongside a rise in participation, although members cautioned about interpreting the labour force data because of changes to survey methodology.

There is also a mechanical gap. The August forecasts assumed a cash rate of 4.3 per cent in June 2026, rising to 4.5 per cent across 2027 and 4.4 per cent in 2028. The actual cash rate target, 4.60 per cent since 30 September, sits above every cash rate assumption in that table. Any new forecasts published in November will therefore begin from a higher policy rate than anything assumed in August.

A reminder of what August projected

For reference, the August outlook (Table 3.1, year-ended percentage changes unless noted) projected:

  • Headline CPI inflation of 3.6 per cent by December 2026, 2.8 per cent by June 2027 and 2.4 per cent through 2028.
  • Trimmed mean (underlying) inflation of 3.3 per cent by December 2026, 3.0 per cent by June 2027, 2.6 per cent by December 2027 and 2.4 per cent through 2028.
  • The unemployment rate at 4.5 per cent in December 2026, edging up to 4.8 per cent by the end of 2028.

The Statement said underlying inflation was expected to decline "to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range in 2028", with headline inflation back in the 2–3 per cent range by early 2027.

Since then, monthly headline CPI was 4.0 per cent over the year to August 2026. That is a headline measure, not to be confused with the trimmed mean (underlying) measure, which was 3.6 per cent over the year to the June quarter. The unemployment rate of 4.6 per cent in August was already above the 4.5 per cent the August forecasts had pencilled in for December.

What the Board and the market have said

The Board has been careful not to pre-commit. Its September statement said: "Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions." At her media conference, Governor Michele Bullock was blunter: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance."

She did, however, make the Board's priorities plain. "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down," she said. The minutes close in similar terms, saying the Board "will remain focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment" and will do what it considers necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required."

Financial markets had their own view at the time of the September meeting. The minutes record that market pricing implied an increase at that meeting, then "an additional increase of around 15 basis points by the end of the year", plus another 30 basis points in the first half of 2027. That is a snapshot of pricing as recorded in the minutes, not an RBA forecast, and market pricing can shift as new data arrive.

The data still to land before 3 November

Between now and the decision, the most closely watched release is the next CPI update, which is scheduled for 28 October. Given the staff expectation of higher underlying inflation in the September quarter, it will be closely read.

Other threads the Board flagged in September will also be in focus when the new forecasts are prepared:

  • how far housing prices fall, and whether the effects on spending are larger than expected;
  • the path of global energy prices and the Middle East conflict;
  • the pace of easing in the labour market;
  • unit labour cost growth, which the minutes said was above what is consistent with the inflation target, driven mainly by subdued productivity growth rather than strong nominal wages.

Bullock has also said it takes about 12 to 18 months for rate changes to have their full effect. That lag is one reason forecasts matter: they look ahead to where the economy is heading.

The bottom line

November's meeting combines a cash rate decision on 3 November with the first full forecast update since August, a media conference and, later, minutes. Because the August projections were built on a lower cash rate assumption and, according to the minutes, relied on favourable developments that no longer appeared likely to all occur, the new Statement on Monetary Policy will give a clearer view of how the RBA now sees the path for inflation, jobs and growth. The RBA has said only that it will be guided by the data and the evolving outlook. Readers weighing what this means for their own finances may wish to seek advice from a licensed professional.