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Economic News

Soft Landing Still in Play? The RBA Isn't Forecasting a Recession

Can a central bank raise interest rates to fight inflation without tipping the economy into recession? That is the question hanging over the Reserve Bank of Australia after the Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on …

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

Cooling Prices Amid a Housing Shortage: The RBA's Property Paradox Explained

How can a country be short of homes and yet see its housing market soften? It sounds like a contradiction. If there are not enough dwellings to go around, surely prices should keep climbing?

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

The Invisible Benchmark Moving Up: Bullock on a Higher Global Neutral Rate

Every time the Reserve Bank of Australia sets the cash rate, it is implicitly measuring it against a benchmark no one can see. That benchmark is the neutral interest rate – the level at which monetary policy is neither pushing the economy forward nor …

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

Mortgages Aren't the Main Channel? RBA Research Points to the Exchange Rate

Picture the familiar image of an interest rate rise: a household budget spread across a kitchen table, a mortgage statement, a calculator. In Australia, where many home loans are on variable rates, the link between the cash rate and household cash flow is so …

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

A Broader Middle East Conflict Is Now Feeding Into Australian Borrowing Costs

The conflict is thousands of kilometres away, but its effects travel. They show up first at the petrol bowser and in freight invoices, then in the costs businesses pass on to customers, and finally in the calculations of a central bank deciding what to …

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

Oil Supply Disruptions "Could Last Longer": The Risk Behind the RBA's Hawkish Turn

"Oil prices have risen significantly. Disruptions to oil supply could last longer than anticipated."

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

Inflation Outran the RBA's Expectations Between Meetings — So Rates Went Up

Those five numbers trace the path from the Reserve Bank of Australia's August forecasts to its September decision to raise rates. The first is the cash rate that applied when the RBA published its August Statement on Monetary Policy. The second and third are …

Sonal Goyal | 01 October 2026

Why the RBA Raised Cash Rate Again as Energy Prices and Inflation Risks Remain in Focus

The decision followed the Board meeting held on 29 September 2026. The RBA stated that the latest increase was the third cash rate rise since the beginning of 2026. The announcement did not specify the previous cash rate level or the effective date of …

Sonal Goyal | 30 September 2026

Why an RBA Board Member Believes a 1970s-Style Wage-Price Spiral Is Unlikely in Australia Today

Ross explained that Australia experienced a significant increase in inflation during the 1970s, with inflation rising from around 3 per cent in 1969 to above 16 per cent in 1974. During the same period, male average weeklyEarningsgrowth reached 25 per cent in 1974.

Sonal Goyal | 30 September 2026

RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.60% as Inflation Remains Elevated

The cash rate target is currently 4.35 per cent, according to the RBA's August decision statement. A a 25-basis-point increase would lift it to 4.6 per cent, the highest level since the start of November 2011. All 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected it. …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 September 2026
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